The dark side of the demographic dividend

The scenes on television showing the ongoing unrest in Tunisia and Egypt are dramatic. The map showing the median age of the world’s population is no less dramatic.

From Algeria in the west to Pakistan in the east, more than half the population is less than 25 years old. They call this the youth bulge.

According to Population Action International, 80% of civil conflicts during 1970-99 occurred in countries where more than 60% of the population was under the age of 30.

Of course, it’s not youth alone that is responsible. Other factors play a role too. Poverty though, might not be one of them. Gunnar Heinsohn, a German scholar, argues that “...young men will not pose any danger if they are hungry or lack education. To be dangerous they must be in good physical and mental shape.” However, when there is a youth bulge, “even if these young men are well nourished and have good housing and education, their numbers grow much faster than the economy can provide them with career opportunities...When so many young men compete for the few places available, they become frustrated, angry, and violent. They are enlisted quite easily into radical groups and terror organisations.”

So demographics might partly explain why the Middle East is unstable, but why should it concern us? Well, because youth bulge might put at serious risk India’s ability to benefit from the celebrated “demographic dividend”. If reasonably healthy and educated young people do not find enough opportunities, then India has an abundance of grievances available to agitate them. While the 15-24 population of India as a whole will peak this year, the age structure in many parts of the country indicates a risk of youth bulge unrest.

A study of 27 Indian states over the period 1956-2002 by Henrik Urdal, a Norwegian researcher, revealed that “youth bulges appear to increase the risk of (political violence), especially in states with great male surpluses. Youth bulges, when coinciding with high levels of urban inequality, are the only form of demographic pressure to...increase the risk of Hindu-Muslim rioting.”

Dilip Rao, a blogger at Law and Other Things, found a Freakonomics-like correlation between birth rates and terrorism in some states. He notes that a spurt in birth rates in the early 1970s in Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir meant that there was a youth bulge available in the 1980s to answer the separatists’ call. We can trace back the rise of terrorist violence in these states to Operation Blue Star or the rigged 1987 state election, we can prove that Pakistan used these conflicts to conduct proxy war, but Heinsohn goes to the extreme to argue that the cause itself is immaterial - if there is a youth bulge, it will be accompanied by violence.

While these studies do not indicate or claim a definitive causal link, the data are sufficient for us to regard youth bulge violence as a long-term risk to national security. Going by the National Commission on Population’s projections to the year 2026, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi will experience a net increase in young people. The 15-24 cohort will grow in Bihar, Assam, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Gujarat. States that cannot both reduce grievances and create enough opportunities are likely to get into trouble.

The best way to minimise grievances is not by pandering to them individually, but by delivering overall good governance. The politics of entitlement that the UPA government seeks to make respectable under the veneer of “inclusive growth” breeds more grievances for every entitlement. These are already expressed through the idiom of competitive intolerance and coercive violence. While they must be rolled back, those politically opposed to the Congress must do so without themselves creating and appealing to grievances.

The good politics of inclusion suggests the creation of more, and equal opportunities. If young people have something to lose they will be less inclined to engage in risky behaviour. That’s why we need the second-generation reforms that Manmohan Singh made India forget about. Inclusion is also about thinking nationally. Regional bulges can be relieved if people can easily move to other parts of the country.

If we do nothing today, the youth bulge will work itself out in the longer term. But what future will that be?