Uri attack: Options for India's response and calling Pakistan's nuclear bluff

The attack on the Army camp at Uri in the early hours of the Sunday, September 18, that killed 18 personnel was planned with military precision with a clear stamp of Pakistan Army. The materials recovered from the militants have Pakistani markings. It has been perceived as an attack on India’s pride and self-respect. The public opinion in the country is surcharged with a desire to take revenge and punish Pakistan through a suitable strong response. The Army has briefed the political establishment and the DGMO has publically stated that the Army is prepared for any evil design by the adversary and will give a befitting response at place and time of our choosing.

The ground reality between the two nuclear neighbours is that India has the third largest army, fourth largest Air Force and seventh largest Navy. The Pakistan Armed Forces are less than half our strength. India’s economic capacity to sustain any operation is much higher. Both India and Pakistan have nearly 100 nuclear warheads each with India having a clear edge over Pakistan in delivery means. Pakistan military being in the driver’s seat gives them a decision making edge vis-a-vis a more responsible democracy like India. China, having invested in the CPEC, has a strategic interest in Pakistan and is the country’s only real friend but any flare-up in the region will affect their interests adversely. For India, the advantage is that the entire world, including China, is suffering from terrorism and knows that Pakistan is the fountain head of terror. Being a big importer of Chinese goods, China cannot antagonise India and lose a huge market. For the first time ever, Bangladesh and Afghanistan are also openly against Pakistan. With little vocal support from India, the Baloch uprising is already on the international stage.

In view of Pakistan’s openly stated first use nuclear policy, India has to calibrate any response only to the extent of not crossing the threshold by not physically capturing huge territory. But there is enough leverage with India on this count. Pakistan establishment has been upping the ante for nearly two decades because they always found a weak Indian response after each incident triggered by them. They could thus plan Kargil, the Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the Kaluchak and the Pathankot attacks among others. Coming as it does on a sensitive Army unit, there is a need to recover the morale of a demoralised nation. There thus has to be a clearly visible response to the Uri attacks.

It is time to turn the heat on. As a first step, make it hard for Hurriyat and all separatists in Kashmir by cutting all support and quell any secessionist activities of any group with a heavy hand. It will send signals to their backers in Pakistan. Tighten security at Indian military establishments and move up arms and ammunitions to all formations on LoC. Increase surveillance across LoC and move additional IAF assets into the valley. Resort to massive routine shelling/firing on LoC against Pak posts. Indian Army has to increase covert operations across LoC. These have to be well planned. India must also increase funding of activists in PoK and Baluchistan to make things prohibitive for Pakistan. India must accede to plea of political asylum plea by Baloch leader Brahamdagh Bugti. We should continue to fund reconstruction of Afghanistan to strengthen foothold. Simultaneously, India must provide military training and hardware to the Afghan national forces. Have a re-look at the Indus water treaty of 1960 and slowly start reducing the flow of water to Pakistan from Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers without making much noise but giving an open threat. Also, make sure not a drop goes across from Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers. All those weak-kneed analysts who think China will stop water to Indus and Brahmaputra rivers must know that both these rivers come as a small stream into India and get bulk of the water in India. Close all border posts on LoC for now. It will hurt Pakistan more than us. Stop the Wagah and other border ceremonies as a symbolic protest. Modi government’s global diplomatic offensive against Pakistan is already paying dividends. India must revoke the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) states given to Pakistan in 1996. Like Afghanistan and Bangladesh, India should not take part in the SAARC Heads of State meeting in Pakistan to confirm branding them as a rogue state. Stop all cricketing contact with them for the time being. Indian Navy has a huge asymmetric advantage over Pakistan Navy and India should consider a show of force exercise in the northern Arabian Sea off the Karachi port to bring international attention. India already has a good nuclear second strike capability. What stops India from reviewing its ‘No first strike’ policy? It will send strong international signals and put pressure on Pakistan. A combination of these actions will show Indian resolve and restore the public morale. A young Indian diplomat Eenam Gambhir has made us proud by her response to Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif’s UNGA diatribe (speech) by calling Pakistan the “Ivy League of Terror.” The international discourse is now on terror and not on Kashmir. The security-related efforts and pressure on secessionists and LoC has to be continuously sustained.

The author is a retired Air Marshal of the Indian Air Force. Views expressed are his own.