UP Elections 2017 Phase 5: SP-Congress look to cut loss, BJP aims big

Like India is not one homogenous blob of humanity and there are many sub-layers to it, a similar inference can be made about Uttar Pradesh, as one progressively goes from west to east in the state.  Not only do the topography and language changes,so do demographic matrices. Although the percentage of minorities in the 11 districts going to polls in the fifth phase is higher than the UP average, it is not concentrated enough to seal the fate of the 51 seats that will be polling. Hence, the sharpening of rhetoric with acronyms like KASAB flying thick and fast as the tone gets more and more divisive. 

From ancient seat of Buddhism in Shravasti to Lord Ram's birthplace Ayodhya, the area boasts of a rich heritage and culture. But currently it lags behind in social parameters with industry, education and lack of infrastructure in bad shape, even in Gandhi pocket borough of Amethi. The 11 districts which went to poll on Monday are Balrampur, Gonda, Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Bahraich, Shravasti, Siddharth Nagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Amethi and Sultanpur.

Modi addressing rally in Gonda, UP  (PTI)

SP did admiringly well in the last election sweeping 36 of the 51. But like all other regions, BJP virtually cleaned up the opposition space in 2014 general elections and they were ahead in 43 out of the 51 assembly segments. BSP got very little traction in the last two elections but with 19% Dalits in the fray, it simply can't be written off. The areas voting on Monday are parts of Eastern UP and the Terai region bordering Nepal. Modi upped the ante by claiming that conspirators from other side of the border (Nepal) hatched conspiracy to derail the train in Kanpur and said lax security in the state has lead to such incident.

Amit Shah by giving KASAB acronym to the opposition gave an unmistakable communal hue to the entire discourse. The opposition has hit back with Mayawati calling BJP president the greatest terrorist and Akhilesh- Rahul chiding Modi with barbs. But it all boils down to how well the voters respond to different leaders on the ground. BJP's strategy is to mobilise the upper caste, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Yatav Dalits. It will also hope that the Muslim vote gets split between SP-Congress and BSP. In Ayodhya, Vinay Katiyar has claimed that BJP will build a temple if it gets a favourable verdict from the SC and the work will be easier with a Rajya Sabha majority. 

Unlike most of the phases, Congress has a sizeable presence in Sultanpur and Amethi and can prop up the alliance. But it is plagued by 'friendly fights' and massive disillusionment with the Gandhi family. In other districts like Faizabad and  Ambedkar Nagar, the workers are unhappy with no-candidates despite Rahul Gandhi's rallies late last year.

The SP has its own share of problems. Rape-accused Gayatri Prajapati is contesting from Amethi, which is definitely an embarrassment for Akhilesh. It seems to be losing out on the Muslim votes to BSP and the party needs it desperately to stay in power.  

Congress rally in Amethi (PTI)

Ground-reports suggest BSP has done much better than what the pundits thought in the earlier phases. If they keep the momentum near the business-end of the elections, it  may determine the fate of the elections. As of now, it is about SP cutting its losses and BJP increasing its strike-rate before the slog overs in Purvanchal in the last two phases.