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| Edited By: Arghya Roy Chowdhury |Source: DNA webdesk |Updated: Dec 09, 2017, 12:09 AM IST
With 89 seats in the fray in the phase one of Gujarat election including the bell-weather Saurashtra region, the result of Gujarat elections 2017 may well get sealed on Saturday. That is, if BJP can even show 70% of its past domination in Saurashtra-Kutch and South Gujarat, areas that are going to poll on Saturday.
But with a rampaging Hardik Patel attracting massive crowds in Surat, Rajkot and other urban fortresses of BJP, CM Rupani trapped in a tricky fight and simmering resentment among cotton and groundnut farmers in Saurashtra, the saffron party can barely catch a break or afford to be complacent.For Congress, aided by nitro boost given by the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani, it is harbouring hopes of winning seats in places where they have virtually given walkover in last two decades.
As Rahul Gandhi said, a wind of change is blowing. Congress will hope the wind is strong enough to blow away the best laid plans of Shah-Modi.
(Hardik Patel connecting with voters- PTI)
48 seats in Saurashtra and 6 in Kutch are BJP's best bet to take an early stride in the elections. It hopes the presence of Rupani contesting from Rajkot west and state president Jitu Vaghani will give the party much needed boost and shield them from Patidar anger. Patidars are the second-most largest voting group in this region only next to the Kolis. Reports indicate while the younger Patidars are steadfastly behind Hardik , the older ones haven't still forgotten the snub they received during Congress's KHAM formation. Even among the Patels, the Kadva Patels look increasingly galvanising behind Hardik, while BJP still has hope of finally getting a sizeable chunk of votes from Leuva Patels. In Saurashtra and Kutch, BJP won 38 of 54 seats in 2012. What goes in their favour is Keshubhai Patel's GPP merged with BJP in 2014, which cut significant share of votes in 2012.
BJP is almost consigned to suffering some losses in places like Rajkot, Jamnagar, Morbi where there is significant impact of Patel agitation. But considering it was leading in 52 of the 54 Assembly segment in 2014 general assembly, the party hopes that it has a sufficient buffer to emerge ontop even after suffering some loss in its fortress. The party's headache has been only increased with presence of Shaktisinh Gohil of Congress contesting from Mandvi, which is in Kutch. Congress hopes to make inroads in Kutch so far dominated by BJP with Gohil's presence.
(Rahul Gandhi in Kutch- PTI)
In South Gujarat, BJP virtually swept in 2012 winning 28 of the 35 seats including all 12 in Surat. It has increased clout in South Gujarat in successive elections under Modi winning 15 in 2002, and 18 in 2007. However like rest of Gujarat, it is finding the going rough in South Gujarat as well. The double whammy of demonetization and GST has taken the sheen off the party's goodwill among the larger trader class in cities like Surat, Vapi, Valsad, etc. The party hopes that tweaking of GST norms would help it to ride the choppy waters. It enjoyed a nearly 20% gap in popularity in the urban centres. Even if it is down by 10%, the party can hope to win a decent number of seats. But that will be only known on December 18.
BJP has given 31 Patidars tickets in phase 1, more than Congress. However Congress too is looking to get Koli-dominated seats by giving tickets to people from that caste. Finally, it all boils down whether Gujaratis get enticed by the message of change brought by Congress or repose faith in NaMo magic. The difference may even be the low blow given by Mani Shankar Aiyar, pun intended. Whatever be the result, the build-up has been the most thrilling in close to two decades. Who would have thought that was possible after the 2014 BJP whitewash?
