Congress creating climate for early polls only to pep up cadre

The Congress party has suddenly moved into an overdrive and this has made the opposition parties sit up about the possibility of early general elections.

Sonia Gandhi, who is in an assertive mode again, is pushing determinedly for the rollout of food security before the elections. She called for a high-level meeting of  Congress chief ministers, CLP leaders, AICC functionaries, and some central ministers to crack the whip to ensure that despite the delays and difficulties, the rollout does take place in part and the message goes out about the party’s commitment to it.

Rahul Gandhi has called for a meeting of 150 specially appointed spokespersons from states next week to ensure that the Centre and the states move in sync on food security. He is himself overseeing the operation to make sure that the message is right and that media, particularly social media, which the BJP has used to great effect, is  adequately covered.

Though the implementation of food security is bound to take time since state governments have to identify the beneficiaries, the governments in Haryana and Delhi have promised to roll out the programme on August 20, which happens to be Rajiv Gandhi’s birth anniversary.

Food security is clearly going to be the party’s theme song in the coming general elections, and this was evident from the government’s decision to opt for the ordinance route. The party did not want to take any chances, and wait for parliamentary clearance, fearing that the opposition may, under one guise or another, stall the move. 

Though the Congress is in power in 16 states today, in 14 of them it is leading the government — only in Jammu and Kashmir and in Jharkhand are its allies, the NC’s Omar Abdullah and Hemant Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, CMs — most of these states are small ones, with the exception of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. 

After coming to power in Karnataka, the party has now got another shot in the arm in Maharashtra with its local body victories in the Pune- Sangli belt which have been considered NCP fiefdoms. And the Congress obviously wants to cut its losses and maximise its gains in Andhra Pradesh, where it is trying to woo Jagan Reddy, and Digvijay Singh’s appointment as general secretary in charge of Andhra Pradesh was not without reason, for he has been close to the YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s family.

The Congress core committee’s meet last week on Telangana would indicate a readiness to grant statehood to the region, though it left the final decision to the Congress Working Committee. There was no reason otherwise to rake up the issue at this stage, and invite trouble for itself, particularly when the BJP is making pro-Telengana noises.

The protagonists of early polls argue that since corruption scams have gone into the background, it is better to go for polls before something new emerges or the Supreme Court censures the prime minister in the coal scam, which could make the going rough for the government. They also cite a good monsoon, which is expected, as another reason to strike while the going is good. Come January, the economy may face further challenges.

Many feel that even as  the Congress is getting its act together, the BJP still remains a house divided. Though Narendra Modi has been designated as the BJP’s election campaign head, the final call is yet to be taken about him as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, and if given time, he might start to take off.

The early pollwallahs also warn about the adverse fallout of losing the November state elections in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram — if that happens — on the general elections.

But there is the flip side of the story, and clearly there are two opinions in the Congress on early polls.

It goes without saying that the Congress is trying to change the direction of the discourse, from corruption to social welfare programmes and the rights-based framework it has mounted on right to employment, education, information, and now food security. But it could do with more time to take its message on food security far and wide. It could even go in for an ordinance for a second time, if push came to shove, and the opposition prevented the passage of the Bill in the monsoon session.

There are those who believe that in such a scenario, the winter session of  Parliament could be dispensed with. This would enable it to roll out the implementation of the ordinance for six months, without reference to Parliament, provided no session is held in the interim period. The delay in calling the monsoon session, starting on August 5,  has raised eyebrows about the ruling party’s gameplan.

It is not as if there is a threat to the government. The the  JD(U)’s break-up with the NDA, and the promise of a special package to Nitish Kumar’s government, the softening of the DMK towards the Congress, after its support enabled  M Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi to win her  Rajya Sabha seat, have eased the situation for the Congress. There would be early elections only if the Congress wanted it. 

Mulayam Singh Yadav, who was earlier threatening to pull the plug in the monsoon session of Parliament, would think twice before doing anything adventurist if he knows that the government is anyway going to survive despite his withdrawal of support to it.  

Then there is the ultimate argument against early elections. Why should the government cut short its term for an illusory — and uncertain — gain. It is not as if the party is brimming with confidence about a victory in 2014. Nor would it have forgotten what happened to the BJP in 2004 when it made the mistake of advancing the general elections, falling prey to its own propaganda about “shining India”. 

It is possible that the Congress is trying deliberately to create a climate for an early election, without intending to go for it, so as to generate adrenalin in its cadre and bring the party into election mode.

The writer is a political and social commentator