Assembly Elections 2017: Why Goa and Punjab present AAP a chance to become a truly national party

For Arvind Kejriwal and AAP, 2017 is a year of reckoning. Will its growth mirror that of BJP, which jumped from 1 seat in 1984 to 282 in 2014, or taper off like SP, BSP or Swatantra Party or Janata Dal in the past?  AAP's future  will largely depend on how it performs in Punjab and Goa, and in Gujarat, later in the year. 

Like many parties born out of a mass movement, AAP was about a popular agitation culminating in a charismatic leader getting a thumping mandate from the voters. For Arvind Kejriwal though, the path was far from easy. His meteoric rise in Indian politics closely coincided with Narendra Modi coming to the forefront of country's top leadership. BJP and India Against Corruption (IAC) which was AAP's non-political avatar worked closely together during the heady days of  the Anna movement. But as IAC gave up its apolitical tag and AAP bloomed, the lotus became a pariah for them. Kejriwal, like Modi, shines when he is in his confrontational best and in 2014, took on the BJP PM face at Varanasi. Kejriwal calculated that the euphoria generated in Delhi would be enough to pull AAP's candidates through in different parts of the country. But when the results came and AAP candidates got a reality check, it was back to the mohalla sabha for Kejriwal. 

When the entire world, particularly the Delhi media, had given up on AAP, they plodded hard, did immense work in the grassroot to pull off a coup in Delhi. But it has been less than a rosy road for AAP in Delhi in the past two years. A rigid LG, limited mandate and combative central government and agencies meant AAP has always been in firefighting mode looking to get its schemes through. On its party, the AAP too has been happy to enjoy the victim card as it gives them much needed oxygen of publicity at a time when over encompassing focus is on PM Modi. 

After the Delhi win, AAP has carefully planned its strategy. Rather than brash adventurism, it has looked to develop organisations in some key states. Connecting with mass organisations, it has latched on to burning topics of the states and given a platform to people to vent their frustration. Thus while AAP's stock may have floundered in Delhi, it has gradually got currency in other states. And 2017 promises to be a big test of its post-Delhi consolidation. 

(Kejriwal with Elvis Gomes-PTI)

Punjab wasn't exactly on AAP's radar in 2014. But thanks to local level corruption, general frustration with SAD-BJP government and complete lacklustre leadership of Congress, AAP managed to sneak in and win 4 seats out of the blue in Punjab. From then, it has really held on to its ground with aggressive campaigning from Kejriwal and other top leaders. While infighting has harmed party's prospects, but  it still looks all set to steal a march in Punjab.

The party has almost emulated the Delhi model in Goa. Individual manifestos for every seats, door-to door campaign, projecting a popular ex-govt official as the CM face is AAP's potent mocktail (pun intended) for success. BJP has given mixed signals about Manohar Parrikar's return to Goa politics and that has given AAP a window of opportunity to impress the undecided voters. 

BJP is still likely to win, but even a second place finish will be a moral victory for first time entrant. The year ends with Gujarat, where AAP has made commendable progress piggybacking the Dalit uprising and the Patel quota war. If they can get Hardik Patel to back AAP, it will certainly be a shot in the arm.  But AAP's  performance in Gujarat and in other subsequent elections will be intrinsically related to how they perform in these two states. A victory in at least one of the two states will make AAP more responsible towards governance as a whole. It will tell people that AAP isn't just a party of dissenters, that they are capable and mature enough to run a full state. 

It will no longer hold on to its singular excuse of Modi government scuttling all its vision projects. Can people take AAP seriously in the run up to 2019 and whether it emerges as a credible alternative to Congress and BJP in some of the states will only be known later. But for now, it needs to get on the scoreboard. A credible performance from AAP will get BJP on the edge and put enormous pressure on Congress, which is in the verge of facing an existential crisis. AAP finally has the chance of playing with the big boys outside the din and bustle of Delhi. The future polity of India may depend on the outcome.