A designer government in Pakistan?

India should watch the election in Pakistan with serious concern, as the ‘third empire’ (the military establishment) is all set to form a designer government with Imran Khan, chief of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, as the next Prime Minister. In a unique experiment, and in connivance with the Election Commission of Pakistan, it carved out a ‘Jeep Party’ comprising dissidents of Pakistan Muslim League-N and those who were coerced to refuse its mandate.

Leaving nothing to chance, Pakistan’s Army has used its proxies to drum up support for Imran and cut PML-N to size. Fazlur Rehman Khalil of Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (now called Ansar-ul-Ummah), which was rechristened several times to evade US sanctions, along with many other clerics, has pledged support to Imran.

To further cut into ousted PM Sharif’s right-wing votes in Punjab, the Army has pushed Hafiz Saeed (Jamaat-ud-Dawa), a UN- and US-designated terrorist, to field candidates. Although he is not contesting, his son and son-in-law are in the fray. This is notwithstanding the US’ designation of Saeed’s political arm, Milli Muslim League, as a terrorist organisation and blocking of its Facebook pages. To circumvent the US sanctions, Saeed’s organisation fielded candidates from the defunct religio-political party, Allah-O-Akbar Tehreek.

So why is the Army so angry with Sharif? Among a litany of complaints against him, the Army is particularly angry over his refusal to withdraw the ongoing trial of former ruler Pervez Musharraf and his disapproval of the use of proxies (Kashmir and Afghanistan) in the neighbourhood, as it was leading to international embarrassment. The ‘Panama Papers’ provided the required opportunity.

However, a similar targeting of Asif Ali Zardari of PPP, in the midst of the election campaign, did not succeed. As such, he remains a marginal player, and is unlikely to put a spanner in the works of the Army.

Pakistan’s Army hopes that Imran’s party will emerge strong in the election, as its opponents have been threatened, intimidated, jailed, discredited and vilified. For exigencies, the Army is banking on smaller parties, splinter groups of Muttahida Qaumi Movement and pliable independents to pitch in, if required.

Alarmed by complaints, Pakistan’s Human Rights Commission has questioned the fairness of the election and expressed serious concern over large deployments of the Army at polling stations. In this atmosphere of unprecedented pre-poll rigging by the Army, the Commission has warned that the polling day itself could be marred by serious controversy and electoral rigging.

Well, it will be a dream come true for Imran, notwithstanding the damage to his reputation by the book written by Reham Khan, his former wife. Will Imran be ready to play ball? Yes, if somehow, he is allowed by the Army to grab the chair. Real problems will start when contradictions arise between demands of the international community, which Imran will be facing, and the Army’s domestic and regional agenda with no accountability.

The Army is confident that it will be able to manipulate Imran as he is their creation, but who will tell them that the same was true of Sharif? On the relations with India, hardly any change can be expected irrespective of who forms the government till the Army is on board. As of now, the Army will not agree to any concession on this front.

Pakistan’s Army always tries to manipulate elections and manage post-election scenarios to protect its corporate interest, which is obviously unconstitutional. But this time, it has become far more blatant. In its view, the Army feels fully justified in what it is doing, as everything is in the ‘best national interest’.

(Avinash Mohananey is a former DGP, who served in J&K and Pakistan)