Email
Print
SharePoll punditry is a hazardous business at most times, but this time it is going to be tougher to predict how the fortunes of parties and formations will shape up.
The elections kick off a month-and-a-half from today, but even at this stage, there is no clarity on who is signing up with whom for a poll arrangement.
In this game of political promiscuity, everyone is keeping every option open. The last time the NDA went into battle pretty much in the same shape as it began, barring parties such as AIADMK which had withdrawn from the coalition earlier. This mainly stemmed from high confidence in the NDA that its India Shining platform would strike a chord with the electorate. Voters thought otherwise and handed it a defeat. The lessons of that have been taken to heart and despite the UPA being in a relatively strong position compared to any other formation, its constituents are restless and looking around for more stable options.
The Congress and the BJP both cannot count on loyalty and support of allies. Some are shopping for like-minded smaller parties to create the much-vaunted "non-Congress, non-BJP" alternative.
The Left, which might do less well than in the previous elections but could still have a fair number of seats, has offered to be the catalyst of this alternative. The Congress itself is keen to demonstrate that it doesn't need allies, but it has no chance of coming to power on its own.
The hopefuls who are ready to sign up range from Sharad Pawar, who has flirted with almost everyone at one time or the other, Deve Gowda, who has burnt his bridges with the two big parties, to Chadrababu Naidu's TDP. But smaller groups such as the Asom Gana Parishad and INLD have already deserted the putative front and Pawar's presence cannot be taken for granted.
His recent moves are a good example of how existing allies are keeping their options open. The Nationalist Congress Party is a partner of the Congress in the Maharashtra government, but their relationship has always been an uneasy one. Pawar now wants a bigger pound of flesh from the Congress instead of the 27-21 seat-sharing formula the latter has offered.
If the Congress has its share of trouble with potential allies, the BJP is finding it difficult to keep the NDA flock together. There is no guarantee Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Naveen Patnaik in Orissa or Naidu will stay with it. They feel the BJP will spell trouble for them because the Muslim vote could get alienated, thanks to the recent activities of Hindutva groups.
Two other notables need to be kept in mind -- Mayawati in UP and Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu. Both states are capable of swinging the final result. Mayawati, whose cross-country appeal is growing, wants to stand alone and eventually be the epicentre of a new formation in case of a badly hung parliament.
She sees herself as the prime minister-in-waiting. Jayalalithaa, who can rock the DMK's boat, appears to have assessed that the Congress has a better chance and has offered to join hands, for which the latter will have to say goodbye to partner DMK.
It is thus not clear at all what the final formations will be.
