‘Pak poking nose, India must change Afghanistan policy’

As talks of a re-think of India’s Afghanistan policy gain momentum, diplomatic circles are abuzz with various kinds of steps that New Delhi needs to take to remain relevant to Kabul.

Current reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts may have struck a chord among ordinary Afghans, but this soft power projection is not enough for the tougher times ahead. Some even argue that India’s over $1-billion investments in Afghanistan may go down the drain.

With the US and Nato forces getting ready to withdraw as early as next year, New Delhi has to look at a situation where president Hamid Karzai and his people are no longer in control and the Taliban would once again call the shots.

“Unless India prepares for the time when the American’s pull out, we will not be in a position to face the political crisis that it will trigger,” former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh said.

He suggested that one way to do so was to revive the India-Russia-Iran axis which supported the Northern Alliance and played an important role in helping the US dislodge the Taliban in 2001.

Prime minister Vladimir Putin is arriving in New Delhi on Friday and Manmohan Singh is expected to discuss Afghanistan in detail. Mansingh believes that China can also join this regional forum as Beijing is as concerned about Afghanistan and the growth of Islamic fundamentalism in Xinjiang.

Retired diplomat Rajiv Sikri believes that while the India-Russia-Iran grouping must be revived, China should not be made a part of it. He suspects that whatever is being planned would be shared with Pakistan by the Chinese. “We are buying arms worth millions of dollars from the Americans. India has to cause Washington some pain for its voice to be heard,” he added.

A senior Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, refuted Sikri’s argument. “Perhaps, the number of troops will come down. We don’t expect the US to leave Afghanistan high and dry,” he said.

But he admitted that Afghanistan is likely to become an old-style battleground for a proxy war between India and Pakistan. In fact, it began with India caught on the wrong foot with the bombing of the embassy in Kabul in July 2008. The second attempt was a car bomb crashing into the embassy boundary wall and the third strike on Indian interests was last month at a guest house and a hotel. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence had a hand in all three.

Pakistan is beginning to play a political role in Afghanistan, promising the US that it can be mediator and bring the Taliban to the talks table.