Assam’s Congress victory: External implications

The re-election of the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government in Assam (May 2011) is a golden opportunity for New Delhi to restore stability to the country’s troubled north-east region.

Admittedly, the unprecedented third term for Gogoi is a reflection of the people’s desire for peace, progress and stability. It is also a forerunner of positive developments for the future, not only for Assam, but also the entire north-eastern region. Clearly, with a Congress government in New Delhi, Assam is well placed to exploit the advantage to its fullest benefit.

As the mother state of the north-eastern region, Assam plays a lead role among the Seven Sister states, by moving towards speedy economic development. This window of opportunity is too valuable to be lost either due to poor governance or an inability to deliver on promises of development. The Look East Policy (LEP) that late prime minister Narasimha Rao initiated has already evolved a suitable external orientation to take it to the next level, for instance, construction of the National Highway 37 from Nagaland into Myanmar, in the mid 1990s.       

However, India still has a long way to go for the LEP to take comprehensive shape. There is a need to secure the hinterland of the LEP, namely the north eastern region, from a security viewpoint to enable bold political and economic initiatives. Therefore, the first step towards the LEP’s success is possible only if New Delhi implements an effective Look North East policy.

Firstly, security is a prerequisite for development and progress. Towards this objective, New Delhi needs to bring warring militant groups of the region, particularly from Manipur to the negotiating table within a reasonable time frame.

Secondly, development of an effective multi-modal transport infrastructure for the entire region proves useful to promote both economy and security interests. Obviously an extension of the national road grid to the region is a priority.  

India’s north-eastern region is the gateway to its much talked about LEP. The only national highway linking Assam to Manipur deserves to be upgraded as soon as possible. Another alternative route needs to be developed so as to reduce dependence on the existing one. This highway is held hostage at times for extended periods by local groups in Nagaland and Manipur, paralysing traffic and creating massive social and security problems. There is no alternative route on this segment, unless one travels on the unreliable Silchar-Jiribam-Imphal route. The situation is even worse in Arunachal Pradesh and further complicated due to its security implications vis- a-vis China.

If road infrastructure is poor then even less can be said about the rail and river connections. The railways need to develop a strategy in consultation with the ministries of defence and home affairs — to double its track capacity from New Jalpaiguri to Guwahati and onwards to Tezpur — this could be subsequently linked to Itanagar and Bomdila in Arunachal Pradesh.

Given the scenic beauty of the region endowed with flora and fauna, potential exists to attract both domestic and foreign tourists. Also the commonality of northeastern dance forms, music, arts and crafts with Southeast Asian states is remarkable. Therefore scope exists for the region to partner in cultural exchange programs with these Southeast Asian countries. It has potential to attract tourists from Southeast Asia. In turn, this would promote private investment in tourist-related infrastructure like hospitality and travel sectors and enhance economic development. 

Also youth from the region are visible today almost across India, especially in the hospitality, tourism, healthcare sectors, besides the retail industry. They are employed by shopping malls and high profile brand names for their hard work. Their earnings therefore drive the remittance economy back home.

Moreover, New Delhi needs to include these youth in its manpower export arrangements with West Asian countries which would have tremendous economic potential. It would improve airline-connectivity from Imphal, Guwahati and Kolkata to the Gulf, integrate people from the region better with India.

Therefore, re-election of the Congress to power in Assam provides the much needed political stability to the northeastern region that otherwise has the potential to be destabilised by China. To that extent, stability of the NE region is the first step to implement the LEP — only then can it become a bridge to South East Asia. This will necessarily imply an expansion of existing economic engagement with Bangladesh and Myanmar in the larger context of Asean and BIMSTEC.

The writer is a recently retired
special secretary from the cabinet secretariat, government of India