M Karunanidhi goes off Centre, for Tamilians

In a major blow to the already shaky foundations of the UPA government, the DMK on Tuesday walked out of the ruling coalition over the festering Sri Lankan Tamils issue.

After party chief M Karunanidhi made the announcement in Chennai, a five-member DMK delegation met President Pranab Mukherjee at the Rashtrapati Bhawan on Tuesday night and submitted the letter of witthdrawal of support.

It was obviously politics of brinkmanship on the part of the Kalaignar, who recently witnessed how Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s fortunes have changed and how she is expected to trounce her rivals in the coming parliamentary polls. It was a move aimed at rebuilding the DMK’s mass base and at courting the alienated floating voters in Tamil Nadu.

The political arithmetic no longer favours the ruling UPA dispensation. Already, the Congress has lost its largest pre-poll ally, the Trinamool Congress.

Without the DMK, the government will survive, but it will have to rely on the whims of those lending outside support, like the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Neither of them is a reliable coalition partner, and Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP is itching for early polls. With such an unreliable support base, the UPA may well become a lame duck government, unable to push through controversial bills.

The DMK wants the Centre to ensure that the UN Human Rights Council resolution is a strongly worded one that accuses Sri Lanka of “genocide”. The party also demands an international inquiry into possible crimes against Lankan Tamils during the war the nation waged against the LTTE. A reading of the draft UN resolution moved by the US suggests that it is the hardly the kind that would please an angry DMK. Instead of “urging” Sri Lanka to take remedial action, it only “encourages” the island nation.

Parliamentary affairs minister Kamal Nath told reporters that the government is open to considering amendments to the UN resolution, but there is one major problem. For the amendments to be moved, India would need the support of 24 of the 47 member-nations, which is a rather unlikely scenario.

The DMK also wants a resolution to be adopted by Parliament demanding an international inquiry into the Sri Lankan “genocide”. According to sources in the government, there’s considerable problem in using the word “genocide” because it will set a bad precedent and may go against India’s future diplomatic manoeuvres. But the government has begun deliberations to move this resolution in both Houses to mollify Karunanidhi.

On Tuesday evening, it looked as though the government can get back into the DMK’s good books by moving a strong parliamentary resolution. To that extent, there is hope that the DMK will overlook the fact that the Centre had failed to act on the international stage and the watered-down UN resolution has virtually given the Lankan government a reprieve on the matter.

It is likely that the government will try and draft the resolution in a way that it relies on the term “atrocities”, instead of using the word “genocide”.

Finance minister P Chidambaram said, “According to the media, the DMK president has said he will review his decision if a resolution is brought before Parliament. We take note of that statement also.” He insisted that the government is stable.

The BJP’s initial response to talks of a parliamentary resolution has been far from friendly.
It said it will not support the government’s attempt to introduce a resolution against Sri
Lanka because the country’s foreign policy cannot be compromised to keep a coalition going.  Now, the Centre has to walk a tightrope. It cannot take a tough posture and push Sri Lanka into the waiting arms of the Chinese, who are trying to extend their sphere of influence in the Indian neighbourhood. Neither can it alienate the BJP and become over-reliant on the unreliable SP and BSP.

@DNA