DNA Exclusive: Will P Chidambaram catch PM ball if Rahul drops it?

The BJP may have a problem of plenty when it comes to prime ministerial candidates, but the Congress, in sharp contrast, does not know whom to project now that Rahul Gandhi has said that aiming for the top executive job is not really his objective at the moment.

There is strong speculation that if the electoral arithmetic favours the party after the 2014 polls, Rahul Gandhi may do a Sonia and play the renunciation card. In that case, the government will have to be handed over to any one of the top three — AK Antony, Sushil Kumar Shinde or P Chidambaram. Chidambaram is increasingly acquiring the necessary stature to be able to lead comfortably in this race.

As things stand now, there will be no escape for Rahul Gandhi from the role of the poll campaign chief. However, as disinclined as he may be to lead the party to the poll battle, he would not be allowed by the party apparatus to stay away from this serious responsibility.

With Rahul Gandhi shying away from governance, despite innumerable requests from senior politicians including Manmohan Singh, he may refuse the key administrative job in case the Congress is in a position to form a government with support from anti-BJP parties. In that case, both UPA president Sonia Gandhi and party vice president Rahul Gandhi will have the unenviable task of handing over the reins to a senior leader.

Going by trustworthiness and loyalty, which matter so much to the Gandhi family, both Antony and Shinde are better-placed than Chidambaram.

It was loyalty alone that allowed Shinde to take over the crucial home minister’s job and even become Leader of the House in Lok Sabha. A similar proximity to the Gandhi family has enhanced the reliability of the soft-spoken Kerala leader, AK Antony.  Chidambaram was overlooked for the assignment of Leader of the House not because he wasn’t considered reliable. His occasionally abrasive behaviour and aloof personality also led to him not being considered for the job.

But Shinde’s many recent goof-ups have considerably lowered his value to the party and these days, he is often considered more of a liability. Even then, he has to perform the former finance minister Pranab Mukherjee’s duties as Leader of the House, virtually because he is irreplaceable. While Antony lacks language skills to reach out to Hindi heartland politicians, Chidambaram is somewhat comfortable in his political isolation.

While there is a growing belief in party circles that Shinde cannot be trusted with prime ministerial responsibilities, there is also the realisation that Antony being a Christian might be overruled because Sonia Gandhi wouldn’t want to be seen as promoting the interests of another Roman Catholic.

In that case, the sheer weight of logic favours Chidambaram. The fact that he is the most competent of the three in the running cannot be disputed. True, there were similar comparisons between Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee several years ago and questions were raised as to why Mukherjee’s candidature for the top executive job was being ignored. But at least Manmohan Singh is qualified and visionary enough to lay down the principles of governance.

Neither Antony nor Shinde have shown the ability to aggressively pursue an administrative line of thinking. Chidambaram, on the other hand, has proved his competence repeatedly. In the absence of Pranab Mukherjee, he heads as many as 11 Groups of Ministers and is indispensable to the present government.

There is also a prevailing view that Chidambaram does not have much of a mass base outside his Sivaganga constituency in Tamil Nadu. In that case, even if he makes it to the top job, his survival will depend on Sonia-Rahul’s political manoeuvring skills. If Rahul ever changes his mind, Chidambaram will not have an option but to return the crown to the Gandhi scion.

Till then, things are really looking up for the finance minister. Even if he is somewhat unpopular within the party, efforts are being made discreetly by party seniors to project him as a more acceptable face to middle-rung functionaries. No doubt, he is the front-runner in the post-election scenario if Rahul remains a reluctant politician.

@diptosh