Second wave of H1N1 virus will not affect India: NIV director

Here’s some good news. Mumbaikars can dump their swine flu masks, at least for the moment. The National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune expects a drop in the number of H1N1 cases in the first few months of 2010. Although some countries like China, Ukraine, England, USA and Brazil have witnessed a second wave of H1N1, India is unlikely to be hit by the second wave of the pandemic flu.

The months of February and March will not see many cases of the killer virus due to the hot weather conditions in the country, said NIV director AC Mishra.

“Even in countries that have been hit by the second wave, the virus is not virulent. The severity of the virus is more or less the same and a high pathogeny (disease causing ability) has not been noticed so far,” Mishra added.

He predicted that, although India would witness mini waves of the flu, there would be no second wave of the flu in the country. “NIV had earlier correctly predicted when swine flu cases in the country would go up,” Mishra said. The H1N1 virus had not undergone any major mutation so far, he added.

“We are constantly keeping tabs on the behaviour of the virus. But in case there is a major mutation, it remains to be seen whether the vaccines that are on trial now would have efficacy,” Mishra said.

“Even after vaccination, it takes two to three weeks to get immunity. After a person gets vaccinated, he must be extremely cautious not to be infected. The vaccine takes time to build antibodies.”

Apart from mutation of the virus, the biggest fear is about the H1N1 virus strain getting mixed up with the seasonal flu. “Since both the viruses are circulating at the same time, a mixing of both strains can occur anytime and will result in drug resistance. It will be potentially dangerous. In such a case, anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu will not work effectively and will be a threat,” Mishra said.

He, however, warned that the country can expect a rise in cases again from June this year. “Weather conditions would be conducive for the virus from June 2010. We have to keep a tab on the severity of the virus during that phase,” Mishra added.