H1N1 surge to abate in 2-3 weeks?

Even as the central health ministry issued an official statement saying that the swine flu situation is under control, state officials say the virologists believe that the H1N1 resurgence would abate in 2-3 weeks.

“It is true that the positive cases are lesser in past few days in Pune district. This is in line with reports that virologists and experts had arrived that the surge in cases is likely to abate in 2-3 weeks. However, since H1N1 virus is endemic, few stray cases would keep getting reported,” said Dr Pradeep Awate, state surveillance officer.

Reports from National Institute of Virology says that genome sequencing of the H1N1 virus circulating at present was complete.

“It is the same group that prevailed during the pandemic. Hence, it should die out within 2-3 weeks,” said the official.

While the officials claim that H1N1 cases in Pune are already on downward trend and the same was reported to the central team from New Delhi, the statistics don’t seem to suggest so. While the mortality rate has definitely gone down with only two deaths in April as compared to eleven deaths in March, the numbers are yet to subside.

In March 2012, 271 people had tested positive for H1N1. “Till April 11, 128 people tested positive in Pune district. The cases could be more as greater number of people is getting screened for H1N1. Not all of them may be symptomatic,” said Dr Ashok Ingle, medical officer, Aundh General Hospital, which is monitoring H1N1 situation.