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DNA Explainer: India's 4th national COVID-19 serosurvey - How many have antibodies? Who's still at risk?

While earlier serosurveys were only conducted on adults, ICMR also included children between 6 to 17 years of age this time.

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The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has revealed the findings of its fourth national blood serum survey. A serosurvey is an exercise that aims to estimate how many people in the country have SARS-C0V-2 antibodies. Results are an indicator of how may people have come in contact with the COVID-19 virus and how many are still vulnerable to an infection.

The latest survey was conducted across 70 districts in 21 states in the months of June and July 2021. This was the fourth national serosurvey by ICMR, which conducted three such exercise before, first in May-June, 2020 and then in August-September, 2020 and a third one in December-January, 2020-21.

While earlier serosurveys were restricted to adults, ICMR included children between 6 to 17 years of age this time. The fourth serosurvey covered 36,227 people which also included 7,252 healthcare workers and 8,691 children between 6 and 17 years of age.

What are the findings of the latest serosurvey?

As per ICMR’s findings, the survey showed an overall seropositivity of 67.6 percent. This suggests that two-thirds of the population above the age of 6 may have SARS-C0V-2 antibodies. Furthermore, the fourth serosurvey also suggest that the rest one-third, or around 40 crore of the population, does not have antibodies. This means that a significant part of the population still remains susceptible to a COVID-19 infection.

The seropositivity in children was 57.2 percent in the 6-9 years bracket and 61.6 percent for those aged between 10 to 17 years among the ones surveyed.

85 percent of the healthcare workers surveyed were found to have antibodies. The seropositivity in the fourth national serosurvey was found to be similar in both urban and rural regions.

How does it compare to earlier serosurveys?

This was the first serosurvey after the deadly second wave ravaged through the country. Consequently, the seropositivity was recorded much higher than the earlier three surveys which showed antibodies in 0.7 percent (May-Jun, 2020), 7.1 percent (Aug-Sep, 2020) and 24.1 percent (Dec-Jan 2020-21) in those surveyed.

Where are people most vulnerable?

While the ICMR head stated that the results come as a “ray of hope”, he asserted that there is no room for complacency in adherence to COVID-19 norms and appropriate behaviour. As per ICMR director general Prof. Balram Bhargava, “States/districts/areas without antibodies run the risk of infection waves.”

Medical experts have warned of an impending third wave and people have been advised to avoid community engagements like public, religious and political gatherings.

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