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National Income Estimates for 2017-18: 18 major predictions made by CSO

GDP growth is likely to be 6.5% compared to 7.1% in 2016-17

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1. Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of `129.85 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for
the year 2016-17 of ` 121.90 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2017. The growth in GDP during 2017-18 is estimated at 6.5% as compared to the growth rate of 7.1% in 2016-17.


2. Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from `111.85 lakh crore in 2016-17 to `118.71 lakh crore in 2017-18. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2017-18 is 6.1% as against 6.6% in 2016-1

3. The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0% are, 'public administration, defence and other services’, ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ and 'financial, real estate and professional services'. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and ’,'manufacturing’, and ‘construction’ is estimated to be 2.1%, 2.9%, 4.6 % and 3.6% respectively.


4.The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 2.1% in its GVA during 2017-18, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 4.9%. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the First Advance Estimates of production of major kharif for 2017-18 and targets based on rabi sowings. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the production of food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17. In case of livestock sector, estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for milk, egg, meat and wool from the Department of Animal Husbandry, Ministry of Agriculture has been used. 


5. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is estimated to grow by 2.9% as compared to growth of 1.8% in 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered growth rates of 1.5 per cent, (-)0.2% and 3.7% respectively during April-November, 2017-18. Annual forecast of production estimated in respect of these items have been used to extrapolate the Provisional Estimates of value of output of coal, crude petroleum, and other major and minor minerals, respectively. IIP of mining registered growth rate of 3.4% during April-October, 2017-18. The advance estimate of IIP of Mining compiled for the current year has been used for compilation. The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector for 2017-18 is estimated using the information available on the performance of major listed companies during the first halfof financial year 2017-18.

6.GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated to grow by 4.6 % as compared to growth of 7.9% in 2016-17. . The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70% in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available dataof listed companies is 7.4% at current prices during 2017-18. The quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which include individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi &village Industries has a share of around 21% in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. The advance estimates of IIP for the current year at 2-digit level isused to extrapolate the previous year’s value added estimates at 2-digit level, separately for the quasi corporate and household sectors. IIP manufacturing registered growth of 2.1% during April-October, 2017-18. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured registered a growth of 2.6% during April-November, 2017-18.

7. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector is expected to grow by 7.5% as compared to growth of 7.2% in 2016- 17. Advance Estimate of IIP of Electricity compiled for 2017-18 has been used for compilation. IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 5.3% during April-October, 2017-18.

8. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from ‘Construction’ sector is expected to grow by 3.6 % as compared to growth of 1.7% in 2016-17. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 0.6% and 4.2% respectively during April-November, 2017-18.

9. The estimated growth in GVA for the trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting services during 2017-18 is placed at 8.7% as against growth of 7.8% in the previous year. GVA from Trade sector is estimated using an index of turnover based on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on sales tax has been estimated  Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of 4.8% and 3.2% respectively during April-November 2017- 18. Cargo handled at major sea ports registered growth of 3.5% during April-November, 2017-18. Passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation increased by 15.1% and 18.2% respectively during April- November, 2017-18. Sales of commercial vehicles registered growth of 10.6% during April-November, 2017-18.

10. The estimated growth in GVA for this Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services sector during 2017-18 is placed at 7.3% as compared to growth of 5.7% in 2016-17. corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which are estimated using latest available information on listed companies for the first half of financial year 2017-18. The combined growth in aggregate bank deposits and credits as on 10 November 2017 was 8.4 per cent.

  11. GVA at basic prices for 2017-18 from  Public administration and defence and other services is expected to grow by 9.4% as compared to growth of 11.3% in 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government expenditure net of interest payments and subsidies grew by 14.6% during April November
2017-18.

12.The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of `86660 as compared to `82269 for the year 2016-17. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.3% during 2017-18, as against 5.7% in the previous year.

13. GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in the year 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of `166.28 lakh crore, as
against `151.84 lakh crore in 2016-17 showing a growth rate of 9.5%.

14. The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to be `147.11 lakh crore during 2017-18, as against `134.08 lakh crore for the year 2016-
17. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a growth rate of 9.7% in 2017- 18 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 11.0%.
Per Capita Income

15. The per capita net national income during 2017-18 is estimated to be `111,782 showing a rise of 8.3% as compared to `103,219 during 2016-17 with the growth rate of 9.7%.

16. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `97.75 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `89.27 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE
is estimated at `72.38 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `68.07 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at
58.8% and 55.7%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.8% and 55.8%, respectively in 2016-17.

17. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ` 19.77 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `17.69 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `14.54 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `13.40 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 11.9% and 11.2%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.7 % and 11.0%, respectively in 2016-17.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation

18. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `43.84 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `41.18 lakh crore in 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `37.65 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against `36.02 lakh crore in 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 26.4% and 29.0%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.1% and 29.5%, respectively in 2016-17.The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 6.5% at current prices and 4.5% at constant prices. 

Information courtesy Press note on First Advance Estimates of National Income 2017-18  

 

 

 

 

 

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