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Trade war, currency to sway St

Traders will keep an eye on the US and China president meetings amid trade war concerns

Trade war, currency to sway St
Stock markets

It was thoroughly an action-packed last week for Indian equity markets as crude reached $85 mark and rupee touched a new historical low of 74.48 per dollar. Despite all odds, the benchmark Nifty managed to close in the green after five weeks at 10472, clocking gains of 1.51%.

Mid and small cap indices also saw buying and gained 2.74% and 1.91%, respectively, while Bank Nifty outperformed the market with gains of 3.90% in the last week. All the sectors except IT, pharma and metals ended in the green. 

Among the gainers, media sector gained 8.25% led by Zee (up by 11.40%) on better Q2 numbers and energy index gained 7.27%. Index heavyweight Reliance and ONGC also gained 7% each.  

Despite the rebound, FIIs continued selling in the equity markets and sold shares worth Rs 6,420 crore while DIIs bought worth Rs 8,570 crore. In the last week’s highlights, US markets tumbled 6% in just two sessions while Trump’s attack on US Fed further added to the woes and triggered a global sell-off. Back home, the government announced an excise duty cut on aviation turbine fuel from 14% to 11%, giving a relief to aviation firms. In addition, the rescue package for finance companies by SBI helped stem fall in NBFCs. The Nifty witnessed a roller coaster ride last week, tracking volatile global markets and other factors such as a steady rise in crude price and falling rupee against the dollar.

Among the key global events this week, China will announce the GDP numbers for the second quarter on Thursday. On the domestic front, India’s September month trade balance data will be released today. In the corporate earnings, IndusInd Bank, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Hero Moto, Infy, ACC, Havells, Mindtree, NIIT Tech, Reliance, Ultratech and HDFC Bank will announce their Q2 results this week. Indian markets will be closed on Thursday on account of Dusshera.

Last week, the Nifty failed to breach its crucial support of 10150 on multiple attempts. On Thursday, Nifty did not breach its crucial support even when the index witnessed a gap down opening, while on Friday recovery in rupee from its all-time low of 74.48 to 73.57 and overnight fall in crude prices strengthened the markets helping key indices log their biggest one-day gain in 29 months. For the week, markets will take cues from the global markets and eye developments over the US and China presidents meeting amid trade war concerns. Also, the markets will also watch out for movement in crude oil prices and rupee. The Nifty 200 DMA is at 10770, support levels are at 10430-10350 while resistance levels are 10630-10770-10900.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO DICTATE TREND

  • Markets will eye developments over the US and China presidents meeting amid trade war concerns. The markets will also watch for movement in oil prices and rupee.
     
  • Among key events this week, China will announce Q2 GDP numbers on Thursday. India’s September month trade balance data will be released today

The writer is vice president at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

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