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St may stay volatile in Budget week

F&O expiry, corporate earnings and the FM’s Budget speech will weigh on the sentiment

St may stay volatile in Budget week
Stock markets

In the results heavy week, Indian equity indices made many attempts to cross 11000 mark, but ended with a loss of 1.16% at 10780 level. Mid and small cap indices still facing selling pressure ended negative by 2.88% and 3.34%, respectively. Bank Nifty lost 1.24% with PSU banks losing 4.32% and private banks 0.78%.

Except for energy, pharma and IT sectors, all the sectors ended in red. Among other losers, Auto lost 6.61%, Realty 3.46%, Metals 3.37%, Infra 2.83%, FMCG 1.97%. Last week, domestic institutional investors bought worth Rs 1,264 crore and foreign institutional investors also bought worth Rs 953 crore of Indian equities.

In the last week highlights, on the global front, International Monetary Fund hinted at slower growth in global economies and peace talk of a trade war between the US and China got faded and thus global markets were in a mixed trend. At home, Piyush Goyal has been given charge of the finance and corporate affairs ministry, the portfolio held by Arun Jaitley, who is undergoing treatment.

YES Bank was the biggest gainer as the bank received RBI approval to appoint Ravneet Gill as new CEO, Sun Pharma gained 8% post the management clarified to resolve the issue of subsidiary sales by merging it from the new financial year, Reliance Industries gained for the second straight week, which arrested the Nifty fall. Maruti lost 11.38% post disappointing third-quarter results. TVS Motor also lost 7.50% after it cut prices of various models by 3-4% to boost sales. Ashok Leyland lost 10.50% on concerns of slowing demand in commercial vehicles. 

In key global events this week, US Federal Reserve meeting for reviewing any change in interest rate (Wednesday), US January month unemployment data will be released on Friday while India’s April to December fiscal deficit data (Thursday), Budget speech is scheduled on Friday. Auto companies will release their January month sales data from Friday. In the ongoing corporate earnings season, companies, including Shriram Transport Finance, Ceat, Escorts, RBL Bank, Axis Bank, Godrej Consumer, Bajaj Finance, HDFC, Bank of Baroda, HCL Tech, Bajaj Auto, ICICI Bank, Jubilant Food, Bharat Electronics, Indian Oil Corporation, Dabur, Hero MotoCorp, Vedanta, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddy’s and Titan will announce their third quarter results this week.

Nifty started last week with a positive note and made high of 10987, traded in a narrow range through the week till Thursday, but faced selling pressure on Friday. For the week, Nifty support levels are at 10750-10630-10560-10480 while resistance levels are at 10850-10940-10985. A probable broader Nifty trading range could be 10480-10940.

BEARISH CANDLE

  • Nifty made a bearish candle with multiple attempts to cross 10980 levels since last six weeks
     
  • Thus only a decisive crossover of this level can trigger further rally

The writer is VP-retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

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