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Kim-Trump talks, Fed meet to set tone on St this week

Nifty forms Doji pattern, seen in 10600-10900 range in volatile trade

Kim-Trump talks, Fed meet to set tone on St this week
Stock markets

In the previous week, Nifty continued with its northbound journey and crawled higher for the third straight week gaining 0.67%, closing at 10767 level. The mid-cap index too gained 1%, snapping its five-week loss. However, the small-cap gauge is still facing pressure and lost 0.50% in the last week.

Sectorally, except private banks and infrastructure, all the others ended in green. The pharma sector gained the most 4.76%, led by Sun Pharma which rose 9% post announcement of the US Food and Drug Administration, which classified its Halol plant as voluntary action indicated, which means no regulatory action to be taken. Last week, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its second bi-monthly meeting hiked policy rates by 25 basis points to 6.25%, first-time post-2014 and kept neutral stance, citing inflation in the range of 4.8%, and  maintaining GDP growth forecast at 7.4% for fiscal 2019. India 10-year G-Sec yields spiked to 8%, highest in the last three years. Retail petrol and diesel prices were reduced throughout the week as crude price softened to $76.50 mark, while the rupee weakened 0.5% during the week and closed at 67.50/$. Forex reserve dipped marginally to $412 billion.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 2,131 crore and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were also buyers after a very long time and bought shares worth Rs 1,367 crore.

The most vital and much-discussed meeting of the week between the North Korean president and Donald Trump in Singapore is scheduled for tomorrow. The US Fed meeting for the rate decision will be held on Wednesday while China May month IIP data would be released on Thursday. Bank of Japan policy rate decision will be announced on Friday. India’s April month IIP & CPI data will be out on Tuesday.

In this week, all the global market eyes will be on the outcome of the important meeting between North Korea and the USA. A rate hike by the Fed is already factored in due to strong growth in the US economy and historically low unemployment data.

Last week, Nifty traded exactly in the defined range of 10550-10850, it made low of 10551 on Wednesday and bounced back to 10818 on Thursday. For the week, Nifty formed a high wave long legged Doji pattern which indicates consolidation as Nifty closing is near to its opening level. For this week, with a bout of volatility Nifty trading range could be 10600 to 10900.

CONSOLIDATION TIME

  • In this week, all the global market eyes will be on the outcome of the important meeting between North Korea and the US
     
  • For the week, Nifty formed a high wave long legged Doji pattern which indicates consolidation as Nifty closing is near to its opening level

The writer is VP-retail research, Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd

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