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Will Islam conquer the world?
| Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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All over Europe right now, there is a terror alert; there are even fears of a 'Mumbai-style' urban jihadist attack of the sorts we saw in 2008. Over in the US, the controversy surrounding plans to build a mosque near the site of the 9/11 terror attacks in New York has sharpened focus on a larger debate: should the US fear Islam? Others contend, more controversially, that Islam will "conquer all other religions" - and "Allah's prediction" will soon come to pass! Some of these fears that Islam will "conquer the world" arise, in part, from perceptions about dramatic changes in religious demographics, particularly in Europe and America. There are those who argue that a "demographic time bomb" is transforming Europe. It manifests itself in fears that London is becoming Londonistan - that the spread of Islamism is creating a terror state in Britain - and that radical Islam is destroying Europe from within. It also finds expressioin in a cultural backlash that has seen France ban the hijab in public places, and a controversy in Switzerland over the construction of minarets.
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Recently in Hong Kong, I sat down with demographer and economist Dr Richard Hokenson to explore this and other themes. I asked him whether fears of an "Islamisation" of Europe and other parts of the world were justified by changes in religious demographics. His response: "The fear about the 'Muslimisation' of Europe is based on false premises... It's the world's biggest myth. It's in the Muslim world that birth rates are falling the fastest, including in Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Yemen and Iraq; in Iran it's already below replacement level. And even in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it's falling at a slower rate.When women from high birth rate countries move to low birth rate countries like those in Europe, they adopt the local standard." I also discussed other demographics-related topics relating to India and China. Of India, it's often said that it's in a "demographic sweet spot", but Hokenson argues that for India to harvest this dividend, it has to get a few things in place - such as improve education, and enhance agricultural productivity so that surplus labour can move to the cities. And as for China, which faces an ageing population and a labour force that will begin to decline in size in a few years, Hokenson says - again taking a contrarian line - that reversing or reforming the controversial one-child policy (as some provinces are talking of doing by 2030 - won't help. That's because fertility rates in China had already collapsed when the one-child policy was implemented in 1979. In the interview, Hokenson also debunks other demographics-related myths: that it isn't a population explosion we should be worried about at a global level, but a population implosion. You can read the interview as it appeared in the September 25 print edition of DNA here - but owing to space constraints, the full interview couldn't be accommodated, so I've uploaded it here. Am sharing it in the hope you'll learn as much from it as I did.
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The reason people are worried about this particular religion is because of the violence and uni-dimensional world-view its followers propagate. I am not a scholar on the religion, and do not know whether this blind hatred and desire to suppress 'the other' (other religions, other ways of life, women) is inherent to the scriptures of this religion, or whether it is due to the actions of some of its followers. But the fact remains that there is a lot of 'institutionalised' (note this is the key word) and often legally condoned cruelty that is practised in the name of this religion. That is why we all should be worried about this faith.
China will conquer the world in the 21st century. Be worried, very worried. I'm serious.
Did Hitler win over the world??
You know, it's only a matter of time before the right wingers in the West rise to power and put an end to Islamisation of the West. Westerners are not going back to middle-age Sharia law gaining prominence in their countries.
Venkatesan, Dr. Hokenson is on drugs or what? Another liberal elitist of the West. I just watched on CNN and you know what is the most common first name in Britain this year??? Guess... It's "Mohammad".
By Dr. Aditya Oct 29, 2010
No, Islam can never conquer the world because its foundation is on destruction of human beings or their beliefs on life. I feel at the end of the day a person will definitely think, that what is the cause for which the supreme power has made my existence? And shattered with the deeds people will undergo nervous breakdown. As Islam leads to the life in which all have to eat, sleep and make pleasure as per one which is the most biggest untruth of life.
I have read the whole piece... you have asked some relevant questions there.
But demographic change can also be brought about by proselytisation and Islam is the world’s fastest growing religious order. Would it not be fair to have said the same thing about Christians 2000, 1000, or even 500 years ago? I don’t think there’s much risk of that.
But he has not answered them directly. Christianity is the largest religion today. The issue with Islam is the violence that we see and we all are victims in one form or the other.
Islam is not spread by newborn babies only. People convert to Islam as well, FYI. The birth rates may be falling (which in itself is debatable), but forced conversion is on the rise too. The number of Muslims will rise, even if no babies were to be born at all.
Dear Blogger
It's really shocking that you are quoting someone out of context here in your write-up.
If Dr Green says that actually the rate of growth is coming down in some countries like Emirates and Uzbekistan, does it mean that demographic bombs are fused off? NO. The demographic bombs are ticking in Pakistan/India/Bangladesh/Indonesia/Malaysia and also in UK/Australia/Canada. The other part of his comment quoted is also nonsense.
The comment on increasing population of India and its benefits is not RELATED to the topic of writing...
says:
@Vineet @SV Chary @srinivas @Sid
Your questions are all valid, but I urge you to read the full text of the interview, to which I've linked at the bottom of the blog post. This blog post was only intended to give a brief summary of the subject.
@Vineet - Yes, the portion relating to India is outside of the religious demographics debate, but I wanted additionally to explore India's demographic strengths in some detail as well. Likewise, in the full text version of the interview, you'll find a discussion on China, which is unrelated to the religious demographics debate (but which I hope will also hold interest).
One wonders whether this is true not just of Pakistan but the subcontinent; further, how does the reproduction rate compare with the other religionists?
Dr Richard Hokenson either has not understood your question OR you are deliberately sidestepping the issue.
Change in demographics in Europe is the point and not Iran, Afghanistan... in other words what is the growth rate of Muslims vis-a-vis Christians in Europe? Also considering illegal migration, that is the point.
These so-called experts increasingly are at a loss to prove many of their theories/assertions with solid evidence in the form of facts and figures.
Sad that we are still scaring people on the basis of one religious faith versus another. Is not "PEACE" the real GOD?
The comment of the learned Economist skirted the central issue. It is not the birth rate in Muslim countries that matters, but the birth rate in secular countries where Muslims are immigrating. The Muslim countries will always remain Muslim countries because of the nature of their Governments and political structures. True, they may have come down slightly in Muslim countries due to resource constraints, but they still remain very high. How can their birth rate come down to local level in the foreign country if they insist on special treatment, Sharia, etc? Evidence is clear — in UK itself, Muslim birth rate is 3 times higher than average, meaning in 40 yrs, it may become an Islamic country...
What is Islam? Is it what we see in the shape of Al-Qaida and Taliban in various countries? No sir, Islam cannot be learnt by learning the present day Muslims. It can only be learnt by understanding the Qur'an as explained by Prophet Muhammad [pbuh] and his rightly guided followers who give preference to wisdom over anything else.
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