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Elections, Votes, Machinations … or, Just Another Conspiracy Theory
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Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago
Once is happenstance
Twice is a coincidence
The third time it's enemy action
-- Auric Goldfinger to James Bond in Ian Fleming's 'Goldfinger'
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THE following is a mere conspiracy theory. There is no proof, no evidence, no witness, nothing at all ... Circa 2004, The BJP-led NDA government is going strong. In fact, so strong that they announce elections a few months early (May instead of October), and are stunned into defeat by a Congress under Sonia Gandhi that had been written off by all and sundry. In Andhra Pradesh, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi joins hands with the Congress for the assembly elections, and wins 26 out of 54 seats (almost 50%) even as the Congress sweeps to power in the state. Oh! EVM are used across the country for the first time ever. Circa 2009, the UPA government has completed five years in power and poll pundits say it has not achieved much. BJP leader LK Advani believes it is his moment in the sun and campaigns hard across India. But, the UPA wins and the Congress betters its position. In Andhra Pradesh, the TRS is no longer with the Congress after the latter reneged on its promise to create Telangana. It wins just 10 of 45 seats (less than a 25%). Oh! EVM are used all across India. Circa 2010, by-elections are held in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh. The TRS wins 11 of 11 seats contested (100%). And oh! EVM are NOT used! The reason: TRS chief K Chandrasekhara Rao had serious doubts about the reliability of EVM. An EVM can only list 64 candidates, to ensure that ballot papers are used, Rao got his supporters to stand for elections as independents so that the constituencies have at least 65 candidates. Of course, the above three instances may be just coincidence, despite what Ian Fleming claimed. After all, there are many reasons for the TRS victory in 2004 (allied with a resurgent Congress), defeat in 2009 (allied with a down-in-the-dumps Telugu Desam Party) and wins in 2010 (Congress leader YS Reddy was no more, the Congress was disunited, and the campaign for a separate Telangana had seen resurgence of support for Rao). There is every reason to believe that the TRS would have won regardless of whether EVM were used or not. But the fact remains, Rao still did not trust the EVM. Similarly, there are many who believe that the NDA dug its own grave in 2004 by harping on 'India Shining', a theme for the middle class that ignored the poor, and in 2009 by targeting Manmohan Singh, still the darling of the middle class. The growing presence of Narendra Modi in 2009, say poll pundits, saw disenchanted voters still end up backing the Congress. But what remains is that two general elections with EVM in full use saw Congress beat the odds... The fact that the victories of the Congress and its allies went in tandem with the increasing use of the EVM has not been missed by both the opposition parties and by citizens who support free and fair democracy, not any political party. No wonder then that many want the EVM re-evaluated. But with a stubbornness that is hard to believe, the Election Commission has flatly refused to consider the suggestion. Three technologists - V Hari Prasad, Rop Gonggrijp, and J Alex Haldermen - have demonstrated that an EVM can be hacked into and results fixed to suit a particular candidate. Instead of applauding the three, the EC had Hari Prasad arrested for getting hold of an EVM unofficially! The EC must understand that like Caesar's wife, it needs to be above suspicion. Alas, it is not so, particularly after former chief election commissioners have shown remarkable ability to join political parties after retiring. A CEC of recent vintage, MS Gill, is now the Congress minister of sports (and in the limelight for the CWG mess). Everyone expects the recently retired Navin Chawla, known for his proximity to Sonia Gandhi, to also be appointed soon. [I had written that TN Seshan joined the BJP (but this was in the pre-EVM era) but as Shashi pointed out, that is wrong. In fact, Seshan had opposed Advani in the Gandhinagar LS seat in the 1999 elections. Thanks to Shashi for the correction and my apologies for the same] With election commissioners joining political parties after superannuation but refusing to allow tests on EVM, there is reason to worry about India and democracy. This is not to suggest that the men at the EC are anything but honourable or that there is, or ever was, any conspiracy by any party or individual at all. But to be above any doubt, the EC and the Congress must support a re-evaluation of the EVM, and before the 2014 elections. Otherwise, Auric Goldfinger's words may well haunt everyone...
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More posts by Amberish K Diwanji:
Honestly after the last elections I made a point out to ask all my friends, colleagues and relatives to know who had voted for Congress.. Weird thing was that everyone told me they had voted for BJP.. Not even a single person took Congress Name.. And then I was shocked that how did they actually win the Elections.. And now I guess I know the answer.. Thank you for sharing this article
The larger question is not about the (in)efficacy of EVM, but about the Quality of votes. How many of the voters objectively evaluate the issues before casting their votes? It leads to a bigger question. How many of the political parties have any policies and principles? Are we as a nation mature for democracy?
By sac louis vuitton Dec 8, 2010 thank you for sharing.
By P Vazirani Sep 20, 2010 Kudos to Mr. Amberish Diwanji for such an article on the EVM Machines and the fraud committed by the ex-Chief Election Commissioner Mr Navin Chawla in collusion with the Congress to enable the Congress to win the last election in spite of its bad record. I am sure in the next reshuffle of the cabinet Mr. Navin Chawla will be a Minister.
By Prakash Vazirani Sep 20, 2010 I strongly believe that the Congress could win the last election in spite of so many odds because of the use of EVMs and their manipulation in total collusion with the Chief Election Commissioner Mr. Chawla and other commissioners. It is totally a sellout of the Election Commission. Election commissioners are appointed by the Congress selectively to help the Congress to win by manipulating the EVMs. How can the Congress win when its policies were totally against the AAM AADMI and totally in favour of the rich? Kudos to Navin Chawla for helping the Congress to come to power once again in the last election. I really fail to understand why the BJP is silent, whether the top leaders of BJP have been bribed by the Congress to keep silent about the manipulation of EVMs.
By Vivek L Dev Sep 20, 2010 Dear Mr Diwanji, the media needs to understand that it can be proved WITHOUT using EVMs that the "tamper-proof" EVM claim is balderdash. I offered to prove this to the EC last year, but I received no response and since then I have written to political parties, politicians, media intellectuals and others. We Indians are a credulous, superstitious people, we tend to believe in any claims made by people in authority, babas, fakirs, gurus and so on without making proper investigations. I appeal to you to give me a chance to prove EVM baba Chawla's claims wrong. You can get my proof vetted by any scientist, technologist or other authority you like.
Stupid article. If what is said is correct, then why did congress lose 3 times in a row in Gujarat? Why did congress lose in Karnataka and allow BJP to form first ever BJP government in South?
i was a polling observer at a polling station during the last general elections. It was purely money power at play. With most voters not understanding the workings of democracy, the younger, educated voters voted for change and for a party not in the ruling alliance while the older voters voted for status quo and for the ruling party. The older voters who supported status quo collected their dues in the form of money and refreshments at the doorstep of the polling booth. It was all above board with the booth security staff, the candidates and the officials looking on. Younger voters (less than 30 years) are not yet sufficient in number in our country. We all know what happened in the 2000 elections in USA, a country composed of immigrants (the best from every country). In India a unique combination of forces shaped the dream run for the BJP with Vajpayee becoming PM. There were charismatic leaders supporting the redoubtable Mr V then. I don't think these events can be repeated in the near future with the younger generation of hopeful voters being small in number at present. We will be able to see true democracy at work only after a couple of decades. As far as EVMs are concerned the policy is no overt security is the best policy and we all know from network theory the most chaotic network is the most robust and stable. Most people in this blog are imagining as in movies that only one group can control EVMs. If one party can control, so can others, and essentially you have chaos with no apparent order and this is precisely how democracy works. It is because the ruling echelons have access to more money and a willing polity which accepts freebies that elections produce the present order of governance in India.
Amberish K Diwanji says:
Very interesting points.
By santubanglore Sep 17, 2010 Sorry, but I don't agree, either factually or ethically. Hariprasad was and is still given an open challenge by the Election Commission to come into their office and prove manually that the EVM can be tampered with. But he chose to do so on TV. Second, I also agree with the election commission that these two foreigners are anti-India forces out just to prove to the world that a third world country like India cannot be perfect in either inventing or using technology. Actually many political parties, like Trinamool Congress, have expressed their reservations regarding EVMs but when their party wins they keep quiet.
By Bidyut Chakraborty Sep 16, 2010 It is true that vote is nothing but a play of few politicians, businessmen & media organizers. They altogether play a vote vote game with us to make more money.
By True Indian Sep 15, 2010 Mr. Diwanji, you are absolutely right.
In one of the centres where I was standing to vote, a Congress party worker came on bike and said it doesn't matter whom you vote for, the outcome will be in favour of the Congress. He said you press any KEY but vote will go to Congress.
BHARAT MAATA KI JAY, VANDE MATARAM
Mr. Diwanji, "a senior journalist," please get your facts right, if that is ever possible for media people to do. TN Seshan never joined the BJP. In fact he contested (and lost) an election against LK Advani in 1999 on congress ticket. So if Chawla joins the congress it will be three in a row of CECs joining congress. Incidentally, Mr Diwanji had covered Seshan on campaign trail in 1999 for rediff, but now seems to have convenient amnesia for inconvenient facts.
Amberish K Diwanji says:
You are right and thanks for pointing that out. It had slipped my mind. Have made the change in the blog.
By Vijayalakshmi G. Sep 14, 2010 There is absolutely no doubt that Congress won the 2004 and 2009 elections by fraudulent means, that is, by selectively rigging/hacking the EVM. The present CEC has also stated that EVM will be used in the coming elections. This is not acceptable! Elections have to be above board, so BJP and all right-thinking and patriotic citizens of India must insist on paper-trail or ballot papers, as demanded rightly by Dr.Swamy. Congress and CPI(M) party also have obviously given ID cards and ration cards to unauthorised Bangladeshi infiltrators, with an eye on muslim votes. So the voters' list should also be scrutinised by vigilant BJP leaders/cadres to eliminate the illegal voters. The illegal Bangladeshis who are responsible for riots in Assam and Bengal should be identified and deported forthwith. Otherwise the locals will suffer further misery. It is unfortunate that the 'grand old party' of yesteryears has turned out to be a rogue party now, under the Italian's leadership!
Excellent article. Nobody should be above law and suspicion, especially the EC, when some folks have proved that EVMs used in Indian elections are not good enough. Why the ruling party should be afraid of such evaluation, I do not understand. India is a country existing since the last several thousand years. India has seen the best and the worst. If India feels MMS and Sonia brigade are the worst, they will throw them out no matter what, EVM or no EVM. If Congress fakes an election using faulty EVM, India will revolt at an unimaginable level. Everyone knows what happened after Rajiv Gandhi performed Shilanyas at Ram Janma Bhoomi... Babri destruction and then Congress shredded to pieces. Indian public's memory is not that short either.
By Jagan Mohan Sep 12, 2010 Someone was wondering how can one 'capture' millions of EVMs. Obviously they weren't doing the mandatory homework reading.
One need not even TOUCH a EVM. It is enough to get access to the chips or the circuit board or any of the hundreds of ICs attached to the boards at the designing, integration or manufacturing level. Programming additional streams of instructions at chip level in machine language is child stuff — a well-versed hacker or even a script-kiddie virus maker would be able to put together a neat trojan that can AUTOMATICALLY get triggered if certain conditions are met. Say, the area code fed into the machine + number of voters + polled voters... trigger a change in the result. Voila!
From there on, it's game on.
By Jagan Mohan Sep 12, 2010 Any machine can be hacked. Quite spectacularly too.
I am willing to bet anything that if the EVMs are provided to a 'Pwn 2 Own' kind of competition, they won't last a FULL MINUTE.
A security chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Here the weakest link is that it is assembled in India with parts manufactured elsewhere.
And with the degree of corruption that exists in India, and the budgets involved in any election... I bet the EVM can be had for a tiny price. (The trio proved this point too).
Industrial intelligence can provide exact information on where, how and who handles the manufacturing and assembling process.
Elections in India are a multi-trillion-dollar business (the Telecom scam itself must have netted the DMK and Congress Party a few billions, what to say about others). A mere million would get a trojan horse into the EVMs.
Can anybody argue?
Great peace of writing. It is clear as daylight how elections are being fudged to benefit the Congress.
It is very, very suspicious that Congress — an almost dead party six years ago — miraculously revived the moment EVMs got introduced and since then it is downhill for BJP and everyone else who was getting too uppity with the Congress such as Laloo, Paswan and even the Bengali communists (whose electoral fortunes collapsed the moment they opposed the India-US nuke deal). Even the way Chandrababu Naidu lost so badly in AP was very suspicious.
It is very curious that the chips used in EVMs are fabricated in the US and nobody can have access to the software burnt into them — not even the EC.
Were CA technicians present in the US factory when the chips were being fabricated?
The only gainer from all this is Sonia Gandhi and her coterie. It is easy to put two and two together, especially when Hillary Clinton is going around the world praising Indian EVMs and advising every developing country in Asia to adopt them too. This coupled with the EC's mulish refusal to allow anyone to open the machines and see what is inside should make alarm bells ring loudly that Indian democracy has been quietly hijacked by Congress courtiers in connivance with Western powers who want to see a White Christian continue to rule India.
Someone please take this guy to the psychiatrist. He wasted others' time (who cares if his wicked brain and ink were wasted?). The EC is going smoothly now and he wants to poison that environment.
Amberish K Diwanji says:
:-D
This is clearly evident from last year's LS elections in TN where most of the results were declared after the reversal of original results.Some MPs' votes were more than the votes cast. WHO IS GOING TO BELL THE CAT as far as the credibility of EVMs is concerned? It's all the same whether you are under British rule or Italian rule. The total media is a crap "SLAVES FOR MONEY" attitude. Wake up, "WE INDIANS", when are we going to avoid the crap media and think on our own?
By ramnarayan Sep 10, 2010 evm or no evm, there are politicians, especially in tamilnadu, who have made tampering with polling an exalted art. at the top of the list is mr alagiri, the present union minister and son of mr karunanidhi. not only has he accurately predicted the seats that dmk would win but also by what margin. laughably, in one of the constituencies, the votes polled by the dmk candidate were more than the number of voters in the list.
Amberish K Diwanji says:
What did the EC do?
By Jaya Prakash S Sep 9, 2010 Enlightening article. Most crucial to investigate. Many thanks for the beautiful blog from Mr. Amberish K Diwanji. Congratulations.
If Election Commission does not agree to switch back it's better to field 100 candidates.
Mr. Amberish K Diwanji, could you kindly explain why Mr. Narendra Modi/his party keeps winning election after election with margins very much higher than the pollsters' estimates, including exit polls (which should be more correct statistically). Similarly why Mr. Nitish Kumar and his Party in Bihar, Mr Patnaik in Orissa, and Mr. Yediyurappa in Karnataka won with huge margins despite the EVMs?
If the ruling party at the centre wanted to get rid of Modi democratically, they could have fixed the EVMs in closely contested constituencies and at least reduced the number of seats won by the opposition.
This is not a piece of journalism but frustration at the outcomes that caused you to write this piece.
Amberish K Diwanji says:
As you mentioned, they won by high margins, and such results are impossible to change. It is the result of low margins thatare susceptible to tampering. I am not saying any party is involved; in fact it is highly doubtful that any party would actually be involved though individual may have been; but what is the harm in EVM being tested? It is because the EC is behaving in such a stubborn mannter that doubts, and conspiracy theories, arise.
The fallibility of EVMs is not in doubt. Whether it is any more or less tamper-proof than paper ballots, given the chaos that often characterizes elections in India, should be the question the EC focuses on. Although many nations have been experimenting with EVMs, the jury is still out on when and how they can replace paper ballots and what margin of error is acceptable to a given people.
Go Amba! Well-written piece.
Amberish K Diwanji says:
Thanks Ani!
Reading this article was waste of time. Even without EVMs the results would have not been any different, at least that's what the pre-poll analysis reflected. Even the US, one of the developed democracies, does not have a foolproof counting system (chads and dimples). Refer to Al Gore's defeat. Yet nobody is calling it a conspiracy, it was an unintentional systemic flaw. Similar is the case with EVMs. It may or may not have flaws, but based on this, to doubt the integrity of every leader or the EC would be grossly incorrect.
indian brains are acknowledged as the best available in the world. so manipulating evm is a very small job entrusted to persons to get the required results. hats off to our sincerity towards a family, in fact we still believe in family rule, so we are prepared to go to any extent to ensure it.
By Arjun Karve Sep 6, 2010 Finally, somebody with guts enough to write about what every intelligent Indian suspected.
INC is crooked to the core and needs to be destroyed if India is ever to attain a real superpower status.
This is one of the silliest writings that ever bothered my eyes. I have just one simple question. How many EVMs are used for a full-fledged Lok Sabha or state poll? To manipulate such machines, what is the work force required and how can one manage to keep it a secret from the rest of India?
Secondly, there was a time when EVMs weren't in use. It was all paper ballots meant for a free and fair election. Did we have really free and fair polling? Countless TV images, reports, pictures flooded our conscience to tell us a different story. But still Indira Gandhi lost and again came back to power. Rajiv Gandhi lost in spite of the powerful Congress and so many heads rolled.
Indian democracy has survived through all those farce polls and strengthened itself even further. And thereafter, thanks to election commission for taking immaculate measures to free polling by and large, free from goons and muscle power by deploying central forces. The citizens feel more safe nowadays while they go for polling, and to our understanding we are getting the result we want. We the common men largely do not think of any such misappropriation happening with polling through EVMs. It's out of the society media, who understand technology more and people less, and a few self-acclaimed or party-sponsored intelligentsia who try to make us believe that everything is going wrong!
There was an open challenge offered by the EC to the public to come forward and prove that EVMs can be tampered with. No one came forward to prove their allegation. And now one Mr Hariprasad steals a machine, tampers with it, and comes out with the proof!
Anybody could have done that. You don't need too great an expertise to open up a machine and fix it according to your needs. But I guess, one needs some Godly expertise to steal and do that with 10 million machines.
So this conspiracy theory doesn't work at all. As required to my profession, we also do certain kinds of surveys before every election. None came very wrong so far. The media and intelligentsia too will predict it rightly once they stop being aliens with the commons!
Amberish K Diwanji says:
The EC is doing a great job, no doubt, but no one must be above board or questioning. In India's first-past-the-post system, no one has to steal a few million machines, but just a few where elections very close. There have been frauds before, and even with booth capturing, unpopular governments lost simply because, as you put it, no one can capture all the booths. Similarly, no one can tamper with all the EVMs, and hence there will be different winners and losers. But where elections are a close contest, a few votes can make a huge difference. The worst part is, unlike booth capturing that becomes public knowledge, here you won't even know!
Goldfinger's words will haunt everyone. So?
You have to ask yourself a simple question: Does India have what it would take to be a democratic country? Democracy does not put roots just anywhere. Until you find an answer to this question, discussions of EVM and things like that are irrelevant.
Yes, even without testing, I can tell that the EVM — and most other things — could be hacked if there is a smart enough hacker.
Amberish K Diwanji says:
I'll keep the faith that if there is sufficient pressure, we have what it takes to be a democracy. The Hindu carried an interesting article written by Dr Subramaniam Swamy on its edit page where he deplored the EC's unwillingness to test the EVM. Pressure is building up, but it will take time.
Good post, but EC will not re-evaluate EVM, at least in the Congress Govt.
This cannot be coincidence at all!
There is no way of assuring that the EVMs are not hacked at all!
We need a more transparent way of enlisting voters and conducting the elections.
More than a decade ago I mailed the then president regarding something like the UID (Aadhar), but got no reply. I suggested, then, that each citizen's every activity (including begging and usage of restrooms) should be by using these UID cards.
We need elections where any citizen can cast vote from anywhere in India. In modern polling stations that may work like 24-hour ATMs.
To avoid corruption, we need proportional representation and educated youngsters rather than criminals running this nation.
Awake!
By G S Nadadhur Sep 4, 2010 Evidently, you think public memory is short. you did not notice that in 2004 BJP lost more because the allies, TDP and ADMK, lost heavily and BJP CM in Rajasthan had alienated the electorate by her royal ways. To complete the picture, Modi in Gujarat ensured that those of his opponents given tickets were defeated — I am the King and let the party go to hell. And with all these advantages (!?) if your favourite party lost, then the EVM is at fault — Vah Re Vah, what devastating logic. Naach na jaane, aangan teda!
Amberish K Diwanji says:
First, I have no favourite party. I detest all of them, some a bit more. Two, what is the issue in testing the EVM? If the EVM is as faultless or non-tamperable as the EC claims, then at least we all know that a party lost because the people were against it. By not testing the EVM, the EC (and the Congress that prefers to keep silent) only raise suspicions, and conspiracy theories...
By Impartial Observer Sep 4, 2010 Well said, Amberish!
Amberish K Diwanji says:
thanks
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