After hurting MGB in Bihar, can Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM damage Mamata Banerjee in Bengal

On November 10, when the Bihar assembly election result 2020 was being declared, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi turned his gun towards West Bengal Congress unit head Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. Adhir had called Owaise a 'Vote-cutter'.  Attacking Adhir Ranjan in his reply, Owaisi asked, 'Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has to respond why the condition of Muslims is so bad in his constituency. He has to say what he did for Muslims." This sets the tone for Bengal Assembly Election 2021 as far as AIMIM and Asaduddin Owaisi is concerned. 

The AIMIM fielded 16 candidates in Seemanchal and mainly targeted the RJD-Congress alliance votes, which helped NDA in Bihar. A similar situation may be repeated in West Bengal during the upcoming polls - the party could damage Mamata's substantiate Muslim vote share in the State.

The party's strong influence was seen in the Seemanchal constituencies - AIMIM's Muhammed Izhar Asfi won Kochadhaman by defeating JD(U) MLA Mujahid Alam). In Kishanganj, where AIMIM lost; Amour, which was won by AIMIM's Bihar President Akhtar-ul Iman by defeating Congress MLA Jaleel Mastan; Bahadurganj, won by AIMIM's Mohammed Anzar Nayeemi by defeating Congress' Tauseef Alam; Baisi, won by AIMIM's Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad by defeating RJD's Haji Abdus Subhan; Thakurganj, where AIMIM lost; and Jokihat, won by AIMIM's Shahnawaz Alam who defeated his brother Sarfaraz Alam of RJD.

Owaisi's party managed to secure only five seats in Bihar assembly elections. Still, it was enough to scuttle the Mahagathbandhan's hopes of outdoing the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the State.

Congress is still shouting 'vote katwa' just as before. They've already started blaming their own failure on @aimim_national's success in #BiharElections. Here are the facts:
-We contested 20 seats, won 5, MGB won 9 & NDA, 6
-On seats where NDA won, the victory margin... [1/2] — Asaduddin Owaisi (@asadowaisi) November 11, 2020

His huge advancements in the Bihar poll results by winning five seats out of 24 in the Seemanchal region has now become an eye-opener for the Trinamool Congress - considering AIMIM a 'vote-cutter' - which is going to wrest the saffron brigade in the West Bengal assembly elections 2021.

Having some influence among Muslim voters in Bengal's bordering areas, AIMIM has decided to contest the 2021 polls, reportedly with the support of one of the strong Muslim clerics in Bengal - Abbas Siddiqui.

Siddiqui, in one of his public rallies, called himself a 'big fan' of Owaisi. Siddiqui's support to AIMIM is likely going to damage Mamata Banerjee's game plan in securing the magic figure, an effect similar to the one felt in Bihar by Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

Our Bihar president Akhtarul Iman went and met all the parties for the alliance but these parties treated us like untouchables and now they are blaming us their loss - Barrister @asadowaisihttps://t.co/ILeLHf3fSS — AIMIM (@aimim_national) November 11, 2020

Siddiqui is an influential cleric of the Furfura Sharif Darbar, located in Jangipara in Hooghly district. His decision to contest the 2021 state elections while extending his wishes to Owaisi could be a concern for TMC due to the Muslim vote share's inevitable division.

Although he is politically standing against the BJP, his decision to contest the assembly polls is likely to help the saffron brigade. With more than 31 percent vote share - Muslims are undeniably a deciding factor to turn the tables for any political party in West Bengal.

They were also the deciding factor during the Left rule in the State until TMC chief Mamata Banerjee came to power in 2011. Banerjee knows all too well that any significant division in the Muslim vote share – a deciding factor in nearly 90 out of 294 Assembly seats in the State – could jeopardize her mission for the upcoming polls.

बिहार कि अवाम ने न सिर्फ़ अपने वोटों से बल्कि अपनी मोहब्बतों से हमें इतना नवाज़ा कि मेरे पास अलफ़ाज़ नहीं है कि कैसे उनका शुक्रिया अदा करूँ

इंशा'अल्लाह हम आपके भरोसे पर उतरने की पूरी कोशिश करेंगे। https://t.co/4C0SgudiEZ — Asaduddin Owaisi (@asadowaisi) November 10, 2020

Owaisi saw a huge political opportunity in Bengal, and since 2011 his party began slow work starting in the bordering areas of the State where the Muslim population is high.

After winning five seats in Bihar – Owaisi is likely to pay more attention to Bengal. Even though he yet to launch AIMIM officially in the State, the leader has already been engaging local youths to spread AIMIM's ideology and the party's stand towards Muslims, mainly in Kolkata, North Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad, Jalpaiguri, and Nadia districts.

Earlier, AIMIM's West Bengal head Jamirul Hassan had claimed that they are certainly going to contest the State's election, but the number of seats to contest would be decided only after the Bihar poll results.

In the last Lok Sabha elections, the State had witnessed polarised two-way voting. BJP had openly played their Hindu card, while TMC banked on the Muslims. Such was the polarisation that even the Matuas (strong supporters of TMC) voted for BJP for raising the Citizenship issue.

India places its trust in the resolute leadership of PM @narendramodi ji. BJP and NDA have swept the Bihar elections and the bypolls around the country. State after state knows only BJP can fast track development and people's prosperity. Bengal next!#এবার_বাংলা_পারলে_সামলা — Kailash Vijayvargiya (@KailashOnline) November 11, 2020

While polarization has become a concern for TMC - as Hindu votes are running towards the BJP - Abbas Siddiqui and AIMIM's plan to contest the 2021 election could prove to be a boon to BJP. Compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections 2019, TMC received 43 percent of the vote despite 12 seats, which was 5 percent more (due to Muslim support). In 2014 TMC got 34 seats, while in 2019, it secured Only managed to get 22.

On the other hand, BJP's vote percentage was 12 percent in the 2016 assembly elections, and it was 39 percent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This increase in 27 percent vote share was mainly due to the Hindus' alliance with the saffron party.

In West Bengal, about 22 percent of Muslims live in Kolkata, while the majority of them, about 67 percent, live in Murshidabad district. The second and third highest Muslim population is 52 percent in North Dinajpur and 53 percent in Malda. In North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur, the Muslim community is 49.92 percent and 25 percent, respectively.

West Bengal has the second-highest Muslim population of India at around 2.47 crore - about 27.5 percent of the State's population. In the 2016 assembly elections, TMC was ahead in about 90 minority-dominated seats. The densely Muslim populated areas comprise more than 40 percent of the electorate - TMC was ahead in 60 of 65 assembly constituencies.

Banking on Muslims AIMIM, and Abbas Siddiqui - the party that revolves mainly around minorities - can play a spoilsport for Mamta 'Didi.'