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ShareThe recalcitrance of the Reddy brothers defies normal political logic. Anyone else in their position would have gleefully accepted the compromise formula that is no longer a secret and the first of those steps has already been taken by chief minister BS Yeddyurappa.
It is not merely the transfer of VP Baligar, his principal secretary, that the CM is willing to consider. It appears he would walk the extra mile and jettison Shobha Karandlaje, possibly VS Acharya and even Basavaraj Bommai and CM Udasi. This, apart from the changes he proposes to make in his style of functioning, in setting up a core committee to decide major issues and in giving officers that the Reddy brothers want in various districts.
This, it is evident, is not enough for the Bellary brothers and their supporters in the legislature party, who are insisting that Yeddyurappa pay the price with his head. That is the one-point programme from which they have not swerved a wee bit even though every leader at the apex of the party, including LK Advani, have tried to get them to agree to this. These leaders are still at it.
It is quite possible that the crisis will be resolved in a day or two. After all, even for the dissidents to back off, you need to give some time and a face-saving device. So, it is quite possible that after a couple of rounds of discussion with the party top brass, Janardhana Reddy may say that in the interest of the party, they are staying their hand for the present. All other options, such as dissolution of the assembly and a fresh mandate are in the realm of speculation. No party in power ever invites an election on its own.
If, on the other hand, rebels are sure of carrying at least 70-odd members of the legislative assembly with them, they will probably insist on a moderate and pliable hand at the helm. Any other card they hold, only the Reddy brothers seem to know.
Whatever may be the outcome of the current crisis, the BJP in the state is singed beyond repair. Of the three groups -- the originals from the Sangh parivar, those who are completely loyal to Yeddyurappa and those who now support the Reddy brothers -- the last one will remain powerful for a while and flex its muscles because of the clout it enjoys.
The originals have lost the emotional connect with the chief minister even if they do not oppose him and may still support him as a better option than the Reddy faction. The chief minister, who probably heads the smallest group now, is pretty isolated for reasons that are well known by now. The caste and community prop that he could rely upon as long as he was unchallenged seems to have dissipated quite a bit. The Lingayat mutts and leaders seem less interested in him than in protecting the interest of the community though, publicly, they continue to support him.
All these factors will make it pretty tough for the BJP to recover from the wounds inflicted on it. If, for instance, the leadership goes out of the hands of Lingayats, the party will suffer hugely in northern Karnataka. The Reddys, in fact, have already converted Hyderabad-Karnatak into their pocket borough. Without support from that region and with southern Karnataka still remaining out of its grip, the party will need a much stronger and emotive issue than the one it used in the past to recover ground.
In hindsight, the party has paid a price for two crucial mistakes it made. First, to put all its eggs in Yeddyurappa's basket and not allowing others, even from the Sangh parivar ranks, to grow to be an alternative. Second, by relying excessively on the Reddy brothers to fund elections, the party has to some extent, mortgaged its own interest.
The inability of the party high command to play a decisive role adds the third and crucial dimension. Now that the RSS leadership quite categorically says it is looking beyond the leaders in Delhi to lead the party, the current key players there may be severely cramped. That is probably one vital factor in the crisis lingering for a whole fortnight. Even if the Reddy brothers give in now, for whatever reason, the wound inflicted on the party will fester unless extraneous issues enable the BJP to rise like a phoenix. That is a hope the hardcore Sangh members nurse for the present.
