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ShareIt has taken less than a week for the Reddy brothers to knock the stuffing out of the state BJP. For the moment, it looks like BS Yeddyurappa is heading a lame duck government.
That does not mean he is finished or, for that matter, the BJP is finished. In the next few days earnest attempts to somehow resolve the stalemate will be made by the party high command. What constitutes the party high command right now is another issue because party president Rajnath Singh himself, is serving the last few days in that post and the party structure at the national-level, to put it mildly, is a bit shaky.
The efforts of the high command, however, would be pretty intense since no party would like to lose power in a state; particularly at this juncture when Karnataka can be counted as being extremely important for the BJP.
If it goes wrong here, then the dreams of a southern expansion by the party would remain just that; nothing more. That is why everyone concerned in the BJP and everyone involved in the party in the state would try their best to salvage the situation and remain in power over the next three years in the state.
It is also not easy for a party to acknowledge that its principal leader in the state had gone wrong. The chief minister may have done hundreds of things right but there must be something that went sufficiently wrong for the Reddy brothers to be so upset and for many others to make common cause with them.
The first attempt of the party will be to try and keep the current regime going, of course with some substantial changes. That would be to give an impression that the party is capable of handling internal squabbles. To that end sops will be offered to the dissident camp and the chief minister be made to give up a quarter. This is not easy to achieve since no side would like to be seen a loser.
If the high command is unable to offer substantial concessions that satisfy the dissidents, and if the numbers are stacking in their favour as it appears right now, the obvious attempt would be to find a new leader acceptable to a majority and effect a smooth change. That is easier said than achieved because the current target of attack -- the chief minister and his faction -- can put on the face of a victim and be as negative and demanding as the attackers. They would, in fact, have the potential to turn dissidents soon.
It is, therefore, pretty obvious that the first attempt would be to keep Yeddyurappa at the helm even if he is forced to change his style as well as some players in his team. If that is not acceptable to the dissidents and if they have the ability to fight to finish, the high command will have to think of effecting a change.
In that event, two considerations would be crucial. First, the need to keep the caste equilibrium within the party intact. The BJP cannot afford to upset the Lingayat community at this stage, so the mantle would fall on a Lingayat. The obvious frontrunner in that case is Jadagish Shettar.
The Reddy camp has been pretty shrewd in putting his name on the table. By projecting Shettar, they have denied the dominant community an opportunity to complain of a conspiracy against it. By choosing someone outside their own close circle, they have also signalled that they themselves are not actually after power. That, as anyone can see, is an attempt to fell two birds in one stroke. Whatever be the outcome, one thing is for sure.
The BJP will be reduced to a party with differences rather than a party that is different. Whoever is the chief minister, from now on, he will have to furtively glance over his shoulder to figure out who is quietly pulling the dagger out of the cloak.
