Power Play: The politics behind the US-Russia standoff in Syria

Ever since oil became the main driver of world economy, the energy hungry West has tried to exploit the oil rich Middle East. The region is also the birth place of some major religions and has seen a clash of civilizations for centuries. Having removed strong but inconvenient regimes in Iraq and Libya, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad was next in the cross-hairs of the superpower USA. They started encouraging opposition and training and arming Syrian rebels. Seeing general chaos and a vacuum of local leadership, hitherto well-trained and well-looked after Republican guards of the Saddam regime and the troops loyal to Libyan strong man Gaddafi emerged to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). As the Islamic State started gaining territory, a complex set of equations came into play. The old rivalry between local power aspirants Iran and Saudi Arabia; the serious Shia-Sunni divide, and the desire of Kurds in Turkey and Iraq to have a homeland, all resurfaced. Having lost many lives in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US-led western coalition decided to contain the ISIS using only air strikes. Many regional powers also joined the air war.

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia was still nursing its wounds and trying to recover its economy and global status. But with Putin in power for nearly two decades, he sealed his position as the undisputed autocratic leader of Russia and started to assert himself on global issues. A successfully engineered uprising in eastern Ukraine and annexation of strategically critical Crimea was his first taste of success. Iraq and Syria were old friends of the Soviets. Embattled Assad desperately needed a powerful friend and Putin chose to come in defence. The Russians moved three squadrons of fighter/bomber aircrafts and many air defence systems unannounced under the cover of a huge transport aircraft to avoid radar detection and took the world by surprise. Settings were now ripe for a showdown. Assad who was already waiting with open arms, now put greater pressure on the Syrian rebels, thus forcing an exodus. Nearly 16 million penniless hungry people are on the move out of Syria, looking for shelter. Financially beleaguered Europe all of a sudden saw a stream of impoverished refugees crossing into its borders. A fresh crisis was looming large for the world. Putin meanwhile, made clear that as per the UN charter, ISIS was the main enemy and its defeat was much more important than the removal of Assad and urged the West to maintain focus. The military complexity and act of confrontation is that the Russians are alleged to be targeting the Syrian rebels in addition to the ISIS. There have been restrictions for free American air operations in Syria. De-confliction of air operations in Syria requires constant coordination between Russia and America, which is a complex never-trained for exercise. In this mess, the Kurds are trying to carve a homeland and the Turks are using the confusion to bomb the Kurds. 

The sanctions imposed on Russia by the West after the Ukraine crisis had obviously not worked. Muscle-flexing Putin is trying to get Russia its place on the global high table. All of a sudden, there is more action in Syria than Iraq. The region has again been sucked into superpower rivalry. The ordinary citizen sees no early end to the crisis and years of hardship. Over four years into the civil war, Assad had lost control and begun mass-murdering protesters. Russia’s propping of Assad is less on ethics, and more a power play to support the last of its friends in the region. This also diverts attention from Russia’s domestic financial downturn due to falling oil prices. Putin’s invitation to form a grand alliance against terror in Syria and find a political solution about Assad is embarrassing for the Americans. For USA, which is amidst the run-up to a hard Presidential election, the situation is more complex. The retiring President cannot commit large troops and yet leave behind a legacy. Face-saving actions are more likely. The action has just begun. Any escalation will cripple the just-recovering global economy. Europe is likely to be hit the hardest. The world is fed up of seeing the brutal videos and destruction of priceless heritage driven by anger. It's time the world community deliberates on a more lasting solution. 

The author is a retired Air Marshal of the Indian Air Force. Views expressed are the author's own.