Twitter
Advertisement

BJP wins across rural-urban divide in Gujarat

Cong stalwarts fall as BJP makes gains across state; only North Gujarat disappoints ruling party.

Latest News
article-main
FacebookTwitterWhatsappLinkedin

Gujarat’s electorate has once again shown that it is a decisive populace which can elect its leader with a thumping majority in consecutive elections. It is important to understand how Gujarat votes, perhaps to eventually comprehend why its people vote the way they do.

This understanding is even more important this time as people came out to vote in huge numbers – the average voter turnout of 71.32% was 11% higher than in 2007 when Modi was elected with 117 seats. It is well established by now that urban voters are loyal to him. The results this time, if anything, further confirm this, allowing even the inclusion of newly developing semi-urban areas into his fold.

Modi has practically ploughed gold in almost every urban seat, a fact that has substantially contributed to the party’s tally. This is evident from the seats won by the BJP in urban areas – 15 of 16 seats in Surat, 15 of 17 seats in Ahmedabad city, three of Rajkot’s four seats, both city seats of Gandhinagar, all of Baroda’s five and both urban seats of Bhavnagar.

Rapid urbanisation of Gujarat appears to be among the main reasons why the BJP continues to sweep the state in consecutive elections. The downside, however, is the spawning urban-rural divide in the state. Some good news in this perhaps is the fact that even this divide, at least when it comes to politics, seems to transcend caste and community divisions in its loyalty to BJP.

A case in point is the BJP’s victory in seven of at least nine seats where Muslim votes were believed to be decisive for the candidates’ victory. Of these, Jamalpur-Khadia, Vejalpur and Surat East are urban seats where BJP has won by a margin of 8,000, 30,000 and 16,000 votes, respectively. This is not an indication of a larger acceptance of Modi by a majority of Muslim voters but it is certainly an early trend that needs to be watched.

A matter of most concern for the Congress is the dent Modi has made in its tribal strongholds. Saffron has claimed 18 of 41 tribal seats, including the 27 in the reserved category.

For long, it has been believed that women are intrigued by Modi’s personality and, therefore, constitute a committed vote-bank. Keeping this in mind, Gujarat Congress came out with an attractive poll promise – a scheme called ‘ghar nu ghar’ for women if the party comes to power. Indeed, about 30 lakh forms were sold and women had made a beeline to collect forms to take advantage of this scheme. However, this interest generated in the Congress does not seem to have translated into votes for the party. Women’s votes stayed with Modi. A substantial chunk of the increase in voter turnout was women. As far as regions go, South Gujarat seems to be his biggest sweep and north Gujarat his biggest loss.

Saurashtra – Kutch

Voters in eight districts of Kutch and Saurashtra largely maintained the status quo despite the perceived anti-incumbency, Leuva Patel undercurrent and the presence of Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). The BJP has bagged 35 out of 54 seats from the region, as against its earlier tally of 42 out of 58 in 2007. Two seats – Visavadar and Dhari — have been taken by GPP and one, Kutiyana, by the NCP.

Congress has improved its tally by 1 seat, from 15 in 2007 to 16 this time. Factoring in the decrease of four seats for the region because of delimitation, the BJP has suffered a loss of 7 seats here. Considering the drought situation, water and electricity problems and the fact that most of the seats here are rural, a loss of 7 seats is not considered a big loss by party analysts. For Congress, however, this region has spelt doom. It has lost two of its most popular faces – Arjun Modhwadia from Porbandar and Shaktisinh Gohil from Bhavnagar Rural to BJP’s Babu Bokhiria and Parshottam Solanki respectively.

North Gujarat
This region, from where several of Modi’s ministers hail, has dealt a big blow to the BJP. Thanks to delimitation, BJP won 13 of the 27 seats in the region, while Congress upped its tally from six to 14. Most of this region is dominated by a rural population as well as tribal areas. The Congress has retained its dominance over tr ibal seats in Sabarkantha – Khedbrahma, Bhiloda, Modasa and Bayad.
Ministers in Modi’s cabinet – MoS Home Praful Patel from Himmatnagar and high-profile party spokesperson Jaynarayan Vyas are the fatalities in this region. Significantly, it is Modi’s home ground as he hails from Vadnagar in Mehsana.

Central Gujarat

Congress’s performance in Central Gujarat has worsened as against 2007 with the loss of two seats in all – one to the BJP and another to an Independent in Savli. Its totally tally of seats in this region of five districts was 43 in 2007 which decreased to 40 in 2012 after delimitation.

BJP improved its count from 18 to19 and Congress’s count decreased from 23 to 19. Congress heavyweight Siddharth Patel from Dabhoi is the biggest loss for the Congress from this region. He is former state president and son of former chief minister, late Chimanbhai Patel. Besides, the big news from this region is BJP’s inroads in tribal seats of Shehra, Kalol, Halol, Fatepura, Limkheda, Devgadh Baria, Jetpur Pavi and Dabhoi.

South Gujarat

This region of seven districts has pumped in numbers for BJP’s thumping majority. The party has gained 10 seats here. The total number of seats in this region has increased from 29 to 35 after delimitation. The BJP has improved its tally from 18 to 28 here and Congress’s number has sunk from 10 to six. Surat city is a complete sweep for the BJP, and so are Bharuch and Narmada districts – Congress strongman Ahmed Patel’s citadel.
The biggest dent in the tribal vote-bank has taken place here with the BJP taking away 10 of 17 tribal dominated seats, most of which were with the Congress earlier. Janata Dal (United)’s Chhotu Vasava has retained another tribal seat, Jhagadia. The BJP has also won three Muslim-dominated seats here – Karjan, Vagra and Surat East.

Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar
This urban agglomerate in the heart of the state has been a BJP playground for a long time now. The party won 17 of the 21 seats in Ahmedabad district and two of the five seats in Gandhinagar district. The significant loss for BJP in Ahmedabad is of Nanocity, Sanand, and its neighbouring seats of Viramgam and Kalol. A significant interpretation that can well emerge from this is that industrialization on steroids has not necessarily benefited the local people here. This should be a point of introspection for the BJP. Notably, the party has won Gandhinagar North and South seats which have a lot of government servants. This, despite the multiple issues simmering within government employees union which was decidedly against the ruling party. Further, the Congress had won the first municipal corporation elections held here last year.

Find your daily dose of news & explainers in your WhatsApp. Stay updated, Stay informed-  Follow DNA on WhatsApp.
Advertisement

Live tv

Advertisement
Advertisement