Once again, the results of the 15th Lok Sabha elections have thrown up surprises. Most of the commentators and columnists have been caught unawares. And, the psephologists also had to eat humble pie.
Before engaging in the prognosis, it is necessary to file a caveat in trying to make some sense of the post-poll situation, not to speak of the policy direction that needs to be adopted to address the contemporary concerns that Indian society and the polity are faced with.
In any battle the `truth’ tends to be monopolised by the `victors’. Doubtless, the Congress has done well in these elections. There is a significant increase in the number of seats that the party has won and a 2 per cent increase in its vote share as well. The other major player, the BJP, has made significant loss in the number of seats and almost 3 per cent loss of its national vote share.
The increase in the Congress vote share and decrease in that of the BJP has resulted in a 1 per cent loss in the combined vote share of both the parties, down to 47 from 48 per cent in 2004. But a sense of relief from the feared uncertainty that prevailed in the pre-election forecasts has led to a mistaken conclusion in the mainstream media that the polity is showing signs of reinforced bipolarity.
The Congress gain is obvious. But the conclusion that this signals resurgence and represents a clear-cut possibility of one-party governance may be premature. The trends of the 2004 elections had prompted analysts to forecast the uncertainty of government formation by any single combination.
And this might have affected the electoral choices and cravings for a stable government. But to conclude that this trend followed a nationwide homogeneous pattern appears to be misplaced. The results also reveal state-specific factors and considerations which have informed the popular mandate.
The other obvious aspect of the election result is the definite nature of the reverse suffered by the BJP, both from the loss of seats and vote share. That the communal agenda of the BJP which has been its most distinct feature in contrast to all other political parties is not going to cut much with the general mood of the electorate was quite apparent.
Sensing this inherent disadvantage, there was a conscious attempt to convert the electoral battle into a presidential election.But the shrill tenor of the prime minister in the waiting not only compounded the BJP’s problems, but it reinforced and emboldened the position of the prime minister.
The Varun Gandhi vitriol and mention of the Narendra Modi option created an impression of the party having lost its way. The basic question that stares the BJP in the face is about its very identity — Hindutva — and other ideological underpinnings.The central issue is — what will be the BJP’s relationship with the RSS?
No less significant is the electoral debacle of the Left. While the percentage loss of the Left vote share may not be significant, the number of the Left in the new Lok Sabha will be less than half of what it was in the last one.
Over the years, the Left had come to play an important role in the national political process, particularly in the policy discourse since the onset of globalisation and a neo-liberal paradigm. The significance of the Indian Left was underlined by its articulation of a counterpoint — and it acted as a stumbling block to the attempt at `manufacturing a consensus’. And, this asserted most visibly in the 14th Lok Sabha.
Obviously, this distinctive identity of the Left ruffled many feathers.This was underlined all the more in the wake of the Indo-US nuclear deal and its uniqueness in facilitating a `strategic partnership’ with the US.
The attempt of the Left to build on this independent position by forging state level electoral alliances naturally met with all-round opposition from all those who subscribe to the extant dominant discourse. The very nature of the alliance at the state level was hamstrung by its limitation to be perceived as a viable and credible national electoral alternative. So, this combination both hurt the BJP and contributed to the Congress becoming the inadvertent beneficiary.
The severe constraint of the Left in the form of its limited regional spread is also evident in the election outcome.The major loss of seats in West Bengal and Kerala contributed significantly to the reverses suffered by the Left. The reasons and the way forward will only be known after the Left parties individually and collectively come out with a comprehensive prognosis and a roadmap for the future.
Meanwhile, the new-look UPA government has to act. Internally, they may have reasons to feel emboldened. But there is no ground for expanding the scope of the mandate, particularly more so in the background of the financial meltdown and the resultant recessionary trends. The election outcome has not changed the grim reality that faces the aam aadmi
The writer is member, CPM politburo
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