Tackling the dragon

In recent months China revived stridently its claims on Arunachal Pradesh, hectored us on our prime minister’s visit there and that of the Dalai Lama.

It decided to internationalise the status of Arunachal Pradesh as disputed territory by raising objections to ADB and World Bank loans for  development projects there.

It began questioning India’s sovereignty over J&K by issuing stapled rather than stamped visas for resident Kashmiris travelling on Indian passports.

Articles appeared in the Chinese state controlled press cautioning India of another 1962-like military defeat if it continued its provocative policies towards China. 

The prospect of the disintegration of India into several smaller sovereign states was evoked. Chinese ambitions were summed up in the remark that two suns could not exist in one sky.

A country’s real face is unveiled during moments of tension. We should therefore pay more attention to China’s growls, especially what makes it snarl at us, rather than the amiable visage it turns in our direction when it feels it is more politic to smile than to frown.

We have unresolved border differences with China that have the potential of flaring up  because of China’s Tibet problem, its failure to deal with the Dalai Lama and the uncertainties associated with his succession.

China’s policies in our neighbourhood have remained antagonistic for half a century and  prospects for change are not discernible.

China has sought to keep India strategically contained within South Asia by bolstering Pakistan politically and militarily with transfers of  nuclear and missile technologies.

Today it is the largest defence partner of Pakistan. On the sensitive nuclear front, despite the cross-currents of terrorism, religious extremism and nuclear proliferation existing in Pakistan, China is advocating a nuclear deal with Pakistan similar to that with India.

Serious reports suggest that China intends to build additional nuclear plants in Pakistan in defiance of the NSG so that the nuclear balance in South Asia disturbed in its eyes by the India-US deal is restored.

Even if China does not eventually confront the NSG frontally over this issue, it is clearly promoting such speculation in order to prepare the diplomatic ground for a nuclear deal for its all-weather friend. This denotes the depth of China-Pakistan ties and their anti-India dimension.

China has also encouraged other neighbours of India, with the exception of Bhutan, to resist India’s natural leadership of the region so that our credibility on the larger global stage suffers.

China is strengthening its military hold over Tibet which further tilts the military balance against us in the north. It is building access to the sea through Myanmar and Pakistan.

It is the dominant economic player in central Asia; its presence in Iran has visibly increased; it is making huge investments in Afghanistan to exploit the country’s natural resources. Such expansion of China’s presence and influence in India’s neighbourhood presents enormous strategic challenges to us, as it constricts the space for us to pursue our interests.

With its phenomenal economic growth, its obsession with national power and its expanding military capabilities, China’s capacity to bite is becoming larger. Will this dispose China to be more accommodating towards us on the differences that divide us?

Will it defer more to our security concerns in our neighbourhood? Will it distance itself from Pakistan even as Pakistan becomes increasingly important in its larger strategic designs in  southwest Asia, with energy linkages to the Gulf countries? The biggest recipients of arms supplies from China are in South Asia.

Will this change as Chinese defence industry expands and China looks for more export markets as western countries do?

All these hard realities do not preclude engaging with China and improving relations with it wherever possible. Enhanced trade ties with China, an economic giant rising next door, is in the order of things.

Cooperation at the international level, whether in climate change negotiations, the G-20, the WTO parleys, the Russia-India-China trilateral format or that of BRIC, serves the national interest in specific areas. The important thing is not to lose perspective.

It would be juvenile to draw conclusions about the totality of India-China ties from beneficial cooperation on climate change issues.

Our companies profiting from cheaper Chinese equipment and goods may legitimately press for a more relaxed attitude towards Chinese firms, but sectoral interests cannot over-ride larger security concerns.

For a government member to criticise his own home ministry for being paranoid and alarmist in imposing undue restrictions on Chinese companies, and that too on Chinese soil, is egregious.

What is alarming is the thoughtlessness with which self-goals can be scored by us.