Pakistan’s future

As thousands of Pakistanis marched to the capital Islamabad, demonstrating for the independence of the judiciary, two persons emerged as “heroes” of this worthy cause — the leader of the opposition, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and the deposed chief justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry.

After winning a sweeping mandate in 1997, Sharif got entangled in a bitter confrontation with the then chief justice Sajjad Ali Shah. Not only did Sharif try to divide the judiciary, but he also encouraged goons from his ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by his political secretary and information minister Mushahid Hussein to attack the supreme court, forcing the chief justice to flee his chambers. A distraught Sajjad Ali Shah was then rebuffed by army chief general Jehangir Karamat, when he sought the army’s help to protect the judiciary.

Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry will return as chief justice on March 21, after an embattled president Asif Ali Zardari yielded to public pressure and more importantly, from his army chief general Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani. After general Musharraf overthrew and arrested then prime minister Nawaz Sharif in October 1999, all judges were compelled to sign an oath to his “Provisional Constitutional Order” pledging allegiance to the new dispensation and legitimising its suspension of the constitution. As a judge of the Baluchistan High Court,  Chaudhry was among the first to pledge his allegiance to the military ruler. 

After being rewarded by elevation to the supreme court, he  was one of a five-judge bench that  validated the sweeping powers that Musharraf assumed under the 17th Amendment of the constitution.

Predictably, he was elevated as chief justice by Musharraf on May 7 2005. His differences with Musharraf started thereafter, when he overruled a government decision on privatisation of the Karachi steel mills and on the fate of 254 persons who had gone missing, evidently after being taken into custody by the ISI. This ultimately led to his removal in November 2007, following the imposition of an emergency by Musharraf.

The recent agitation has weakened the authority, legitimacy and moral standing of president Zardari and his ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). It has also led to growing political uncertainty in the country. Prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is asserting himself but lacks the stature and political support within the party to be an alternative leader. But he has close links with the army  and also with the opposition Muslim League, with whom he has old personal ties. While Sharif is unquestionably the most popular leader in Pakistan today, the position of his party in the populous and politically-critical Punjab province is shaky, especially if the PPP succeeds in unseating his government in collaboration with Musharraf’s erstwhile supporters in the PML (Q). Moreover, the mercurial Iftikhar Chaudhry could well plunge the country into yet another political crisis by overturning the indemnity Musharraf granted to Zardari and by declaring the emergency proclaimed by Musharraf in 2007 as a violation of the constitution, warranting Musharraf’s prosecution.

Amidst the political turmoil, the security situation is spinning out of control. A woman police officer was abducted in Swat and forcibly married to a Taliban leader. The Taliban then attacked a military supply depot near Peshawar and destroyed supplies destined for Nato forces in Afghanistan. Baluch rebels continue to blow up gas pipelines in Baluchistan. While sections of civil society did play a role in the agitation for the restoration of the judges what is causing concern internationally is the growing radicalisation of mosques and educational institutions in Pakistan, especially in small towns in Punjab. Moreover, a new generation of army officers commissioned during the rule of General Zia ul Haq and wedded to promoting “radical Islam” is moving into positions of higher responsibility.

With the army having taken centre stage in Pakistan, there will be inevitable consequences for relations with India and the probe into the 26/11 Mumbai carnage. The chargesheet filed in Mumbai refers to the role of Colonel Sadatullah of the “Special Communications Organisation”,  staffed by officers from the Pakistan Army’s Corps of Signals. Sadatullah was in touch with Pakistan-based handlers of the terrorists. Senior Lashkar-e-taiba operatives, Zarar Shah and Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi, who have been charged with involvement are known to be close associates of the ISI. Given the evidence of links of the Pakistan army to 26/11, there is little possibility of any speedy action to bring the real perpetrators of 26/11 to justice.
How a “lame duck” government in New Delhi, now in the midst of an election campaign, handles this situation, remains to be seen.

The writer is the former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan