India in the mirror

It has to be said in favour of the country’s career diplomats that they bring to their job quite a strong whiff of reality in contrast to the ideological swagger of strategy wonks. The political leaders might feel stimulated and flattered by the grand propositions of policy priests, but they act on the basis of foreign office assessments with its ear to the ground as it were. It has to be noted in passing that the Indian strategic community wants to move towards the American situation where foreign policy formulations are underpinned by ideological rhetoric unlike most other countries in Europe and Asia. But India is likely to pursue its diplomatic goals based on sheer pragmatism. 

So, it was heartening to hear foreign secretary S Jaishankar formulate India’s self-assessment during his interaction with the media at the Foreign Correspondents Club (FCC) in New Delhi. Explaining where the country stood in the world and how it viewed its position, he said that policy is rooted in ‘the idea of India as a leading power’ and he was quick to qualify it by saying that it is an aspirational notion,  that this is not born out of a sense of arrival or out of hubris. That is, India does not assume that it has become a leading power, nor does it act as one. It sees itself moving towards the position of a leading power. It is a statement as nuanced as it can be.

Since he was speaking as the foreign secretary of the country and not as a man with an exposure to diplomacy as a governmental insider, it has to be taken that Jaishankar has laid out the foreign policy position of the Narendra Modi government. This should enable those outside the system to take a more realistic judgment call on the acts of omission and commission of the government on the foreign affairs front. Of course, the sabre-rattling of the political leaders might belie the cool approach of the foreign office, but that does not take away from the government’s realistic understanding of the situation. There is the strong implication that not too much should be read into Prime Minister’s utterance of the ‘B(alochistan)’ word in his Independence Day speech. Of course, there are plenty of problems with regard to India’s position on Balochistan, and all them are not negative in nature. The hullabaloo surrounding the ‘B’ word is not likely to die down any time soon, but it is not the case that India’s Pakistan policy will be determined by what it thinks and says about Balochistan.

The other perception and view that Jaishankar conveyed was that India — read Modi government — attaches importance to the immediate neighbourhood, that is, South Asia or the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (Saarc). Jaishankar made it plain that there is “sharp awareness that South Asia is one of the least regional geographies (in the political and economic sense) in the world.” But the government is keen to engage with the neighbourhood. The phrases that the foreign secretary used to describe India’s position towards Saarc are: strong commitment; go the extra mile; connected neighbourhood; patience. The view from Delhi seems to be that other Saarc countries are willing to accept the moves to improve and strengthen regional connectivity but that Pakistan has issues. The conclusion is: “The rest of the region is with us. There is one standout country (Pakistan).” 
This view will be strongly contested by liberals in India as well as in the rest of the region because the general view is that India is the hated big brother. But there is no denying the fact that as India becomes a bigger economic power house and consequently its military clout would increase, the other countries in the region could find it advantageous to be part of a regional alliance led by India. Of course, Pakistan would not accept this but there could come a time when it would become isolated in the region as it has become in the dominant Western world. 

Perhaps the most important and interesting part of Jaishankar’s articulation of the foreign policy position is that the Modi government wants to pursue diplomacy for domestic development. He gave the example of the prime minister’s recent visit to south and east Africa, where he “sourced” pulses to meet the country’s shortfall in the commodity. This might seem like stating the obvious, but it helps in getting a clue about the thinking of this government. It appears to the outsiders that the government is clueless on the foreign policy front. It does seem in the light of what the foreign secretary has to say that the government has a view, however flawed, on how it wants to steer the country’s relations with the world. It can also be said that at the moment there is no discernible tendency towards adventurism on this front. 

There has been a nagging suspicion in the minds of India-watchers, within and outside the country, that a right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with its flair for chauvinism, will pursue a foreign policy that is reckless, to say the least. The critics may be disappointed because it does seem that the BJP is not going to rock the boat as it were, and the display of belligerence towards Pakistan — immature as it is — is just that, a rhetorical flourish. It is not an indication of the overall foreign policy orientation of the Modi government. There might be a fumble here, and a stumble there. But it is going to be a sober approach towards world affairs. 
The basic fear is that the Modi government would want to go to war with Pakistan in order to derive political advantage on the domestic front. There are enough hot heads in the BJP establishment and in the muddle-headed strategic community in the country which would support that course. It can be assumed with a fair amount of certainty that the Modi government would not want to sacrifice India’s rising importance on the world stage by making a false move against Pakistan.

The author is consulting editor with dna