#dnaEdit: Why de-escalation is not in the Pakistan Army's interest

The latest attack on an Army camp in Langate in North Kashmir, which was quickly repulsed leading to the death of three terrorists, indicates that the Pakistan Army is in no mood to de-escalate the tensions at the border. Coming two days after an Uri-style attack at a Baramulla army camp was foiled, and several instances of ceasefire violations subsequently, it is evident that the Army is maintaining a state of heightened vigil. The surgical strike by the Indian Army has clearly not deterred Pakistan from its intrusions into Indian territory and that is the worrying part. With hundreds of ideologically driven terrorists willing to do the dirty job, the Pakistan army can be expected to keep the pot boiling. However, these developments may have more to do with Pakistan’s internal affairs rather than the political turmoil in Jammu and Kashmir. 

Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s attempts to conflate the Kashmir valley protests with the terror attacks at the Line of Control have been given the cold shoulder by most world nations. But beyond the international diplomatic setback, Sharif has a more worrying domestic scenario to tackle. Pakistan army chief Raheel Sharif is popular among the masses owing to successes in combating militancy in the tribal areas bordering Pakistan, is retiring next month. He is hoping to receive an extension but this is one prospect that Nawaz Sharif does not particularly relish. After all, Nawaz was deposed in a coup by Pervez Musharraf, another general that Nawaz had promoted out of turn, just like Raheel. In 2008, when Musharraf resigned as President, bringing an end to nine years of military rule, the stock of the Pakistan Army was low. Its inability to rein in corruption, the drone strikes in the North-West, the retreat of the Army form North Waziristan in 2006, the growing power of militant groups, and the decline in law and order had all coupled to force the Army to take a back seat temporarily. 

But under Raheel, the Army has clawed back into the reckoning even as the civilian administration, first under the Pakistan People’s Party and now under the Pakistan Muslim League, has struggled to assert its control over sections of the administration and civil society. The dilemma before Nawaz Sharif is to assert the powers of a democratically elected government and send Raheel into retirement or to give him a one-year extension. The first option raises the probability of Raheel and his supporters revolting against the government and perhaps, even engineering a coup. Giving Raheel an extension may buy Nawaz some more time but the capitulation to another protege will rankle with Nawaz. Raheel is evidently counting on the tensions at the Indo-Pak border to pressure the government to retain him. However, the Army may prefer to continue with the present arrangement where the civilian government acts as a lightning conductor for the flak and anti-incumbency and shields the Army from accountability. The ongoing battle of wits between the two Sharifs has put India in a fix. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s persistent outreach to Nawaz has been repeatedly frustrated by the Pakistan Army. The question then is whether it would be better for India to deal with a general rather than a democratically elected government, which is powerless in keeping the armed forces under check. In the interest of peace, it would be logical to conclude that democracy must triumph over martial rule. But with Pakistan’s rulers shoring up their popular stock by upping the ante against India, the acts of terror being staged from across the border will continue for some more time.