#dnaEdit: The Syrian maze

Turkey’s military incursion into northern Syrian towns with Kurdish majority makes the muddled scene in the war-torn country much more muddled. The United States and Russia had been carrying out aerial raids against the Islamic State strongholds, and it is not clear to what extent they had succeeded in whittling down the military strength of the menacing military organisation. The reason for the protracted civil war, which is now into its fifth year, lies in the fact that the war aims of the external players have been different, and at times even conflicting. For example, the US is not only anti-IS, it is anti-Bashar al-Assad government as well, and it can even be argued that its opposition to the Assad regime is much more fierce than its opposition to the IS. The Americans had been financing and arming anti-Assad groups like the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It had become embarrassing for the Americans when some of the factions in the FSA and the SDF defected to the IS and to Al-Nusra, the Al Qaeda affiliate. Russia has declared itself to be on the side of Assad, and it has been bombing the IS bases in order to defend Assad’s interests. Turkey for its part wants to contain the Kurds from consolidating along its border because Ankara is already facing armed resistance from the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey, like the US, is opposed to Assad as well as the IS. 

Where do military interventions of the US, Russia and Turkey leave Syria? It would seem that Syria is caught in a civil war where the country is divided into war zones, where the Assad government controls a limited area, the IS has control over a chunk of the country, and the Syrian Kurds hold on to their enclaves as do the anti-Assad forces of the SDF. There seems to be no possibility of an end to the internecine conflict, where a clear victor would emerge. It would indeed make sense if the US withdraws, and facilitates Assad government to remain the sole player, and then it would be possible to work out a transition which would end Assad’s one-party Ba’ath party rule. The Americans and Russian have been engaged in talks about working out a ceasefire in Syria that would allow Assad to fight the IS and defeat the militant organisation that has become the face of global terror, a dubious position that Al Qaeda had occupied in the first decade of this century. But the prospects of a provisional ceasefire do not seem to be bright. 

The Turkish incursion is of a very limited nature. It is meant to serve a warning to Kurds in Syria and Iraq that they cannot join forces with the Turkish Kurds against Ankara. This limited and limiting strategic goal is a mere detail in the sordid Syrian situation, where tens of thousands of civilians had lost their lives and hundreds of thousands had to flee the country and knock at the door of Europe, and end in United Nations refugee camps in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. Ankara could have played a more positive role if the Turkish establishment were to overcome its aversion for Assad and the Ba’ath party. It was even suspected that initially, Turkey was allowing many of the IS’s recruits from Europe to go to Syria through its territory. It seems that Ankara has at last recognised that IS is a clear and present danger not just to Europe but to Turkey as well. So, Ankara is willing to fight the IS. But in practice, Turkey is content to fight the Kurdish menace. And it still remains hostile to Assad.