#dnaEdit: The Modi-Shah tango

Going by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s restraint and BJP president Amit Shah’s aggression at the ruling party’s national executive meet at Allahabad, the template for the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections is ready. Addressing party workers, PM Modi attacked the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party of corruption and promised jobs for the youth, infrastructure and an end to the state’s law and order problems. In contrast, Shah did not shy away from raking up the alleged Kairana exodus, despite its divisive implications. PM Modi, in contrast, issued a seven-point code of conduct that called on party leaders and workers to practice service, balance, restraint, coordination, constructiveness, sensitivity and dialogue. Shah’s aggression was surprising considering that the Shamli district administration had debunked local BJP MP Hukum Singh’s claim that the migrants had left because of communal harassment. 

But what is no more surprising are the different roles assumed by Modi and Shah in their approach to the UP electorate. In the 2014 Lok Sabha campaign, Modi campaigned exclusively on a developmental plank, while Shah had raised the divisive issues like the Muzaffarnagar riots, the alleged bias of the Samajwadi Party towards Muslims, and was even accused of inciting crowds by demanding “badla” for the riots. The twin-track campaign of the BJP did wonders for the party in India’s most populous state, helping it win 73 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats, and consequently, a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. Evidently, the Modi-Shah duo are seeking a repeat of this stupendous performance in the assembly elections by replicating the same strategy. The tactic of getting the two leading campaigners to adopt contrasting tenors in their speeches disoriented the SP, BSP and the Congress. Caught between countering both Modi and Shah, the three parties fumbled for an appropriate response. 

In 2013-14, both Modi and Shah were able to create a buzz around themselves, but will find the novelty factor missing, this time about. Modi wooed the voters while Shah fired up the party organisation, which had lost traction in UP after the party put its Ram Mandir agenda on the back-burner. Modi had also sent a powerful signal to the UP electorate by choosing to contest from Varanasi. Shah, who was appointed in-charge of UP in March 2013, was also able to puncture the social engineering strategies of the SP and the BSP. However, in recent months it is the BSP and not the BJP that is increasingly being viewed as the alternative to the incumbent SP government. After the Bihar and Delhi assembly polls, the two leaders with roots in Gujarat, had discovered that state elections are a different ball-game and it is necessary to project a strong regional leadership. 

In this context, there were expectations that the BJP would project a chief ministerial face at the national executive. The names of Rajnath Singh, Varun Gandhi and Smriti Irani have been bandied but the national executive was entirely a Modi-Shah show with little space for any other leader. If they decide against projecting a chief ministerial candidate, Modi and Shah will be taking a calculated risk. Unlike other states, both Modi and Shah would be averse to taking a back seat in such a politically crucial state, which sends 31 members to the Rajya Sabha. By invoking the Kairana episode before it was properly investigated, Shah has thrown caution to the winds. Perceptions of whether PM Modi’s schemes having benefitted the grass roots will be crucial for the BJP to balance the twin Hindutva-development cards without getting exposed in the process. This is where PM Modi’s seven-point code of conduct to party workers in their daily interactions assumes significance.