#dnaEdit: Allies, for now

The BJP’s strong showing in the general elections and the prospects of electoral marginalisation have forced Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav to call a truce on their 20-year-long estrangement. Seat-sharing talks for the by-elections to 10 Bihar assembly seats indicate that the JD(U) and the RJD may contest four seats each leaving two to the Congress. The feasibility of the alliance is borne out by the electoral arithmetic of the general elections. The NDA comprising BJP(29.4 per cent), Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP(6.4 per cent) and Upendra Khushwaha’s (3 per cent) garnered 38.8 per cent of the votes and 31 of the Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats. But the JD(U) and the RJD-Congress combine fighting the elections separately could secure only 15.8 and 28.8 per cent of the votes respectively and just 8 seats. The assumption is that their combined vote share in the Lok Sabha polls through the coalescing of anti-NDA votes would see them home now.

But for both Nitish and Lalu the alliance will be a double-edged sword. Nitish swept to power on an anti-Lalu platform and crafted a no-nonsense image as the antithesis to Lalu. The RJD benefitted from anti-incumbency votes against Nitish’s nine-year-long rule, but will be wary of these votes shifting to the NDA now. However, for Bihar’s Muslims and backward classes, the dilemma of choosing between Lalu and Nitish stand resolved. But to wager a guess on how this alliance will play out in the long run is next to impossible. During the election campaign, an ebullient Lalu, sensing that the JD(U)-BJP split was his opportunity to claw back into the reckoning, kept hitting out hard at Nitish. The RJD’s support for the JD(U) government during the trust vote, after the change of guard from Nitish to Jiten Ram Manjhi, and the impending alliance in the by-elections, has been necessitated by the BJP riding a crest of popular support. The moment the RJD senses this groundswell subsiding it could very well pull the plug.

The BJP will know that its central government is key to sustaining the euphoria of its spectacular electoral victory. But the Centre’s performance has been a mixed bag and the challenge of matching people’s aspirations is beginning to appear daunting now. The Congress’ surprise sweep in the Uttarakhand bypolls, a state where it was trounced two month ago, has several implications. For one, it gives the Congress, reeling from successive setbacks, a breather; secondly it stabilises the Harish Rawat government which was dependent on independents for survival; thirdly the warning signs that the aura around Prime Minister Narendra Modi could soon begin to fray are becoming evident. In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party has been actively campaigning for fresh assembly polls, while the BJP has appeared diffident about facing the electorate despite winning all seven Delhi Lok Sabha seats. 

In contrast to the focus on developmental issues during the campaign, the BJP has allowed the positivity to dissipate quickly. The recurrence of incidents that smack of majoritarianism are beginning to vex minorities; the efforts to quell inflation are yet to bear fruit; and those facing accusations of criminality like Nihal Chand, Giriraj Singh and Sanjeev Baliyan have remained unscathed so far. The danger of appearing as a continuum from the UPA government stems most from the silence of this government when faced with searching questions. The Lalu-Nitish alliance represents the opportunistic gambit of two struggling leaders adept at social engineering; only good and fair governance can check their calculations.