DNA Edit: Uncle Sam watching – On Iran, India needs a dose of deft diplomacy

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit next week is important on several counts, the most significant of them being the future course of action on India’s ally and American bugbear, Iran. India’s options are unenviable. Its strategic interests in Iran collide with American strategic interests in the area, forcing New Delhi to walk on a very slippery slope indeed. While the US has appreciated the steps India has taken to reduce Iranian oil imports, New Delhi just cannot ignore its underlying concerns in India-backed Chabahar project that provides this country with key connectivity. Import of oil from Iran has been a key contentious issue between New Delhi and Washington after American waivers ended on sanctions imposed by Washington. 

But the current standoff between Iran and the US is something that puts India in the cross hairs of a global conflict. Tensions are barely simmering beneath the surface after reports emerged that US President Donald Trump came close to striking Iran after it shot down an American drone. The impact of American hectoring is already evident: India’s aviation regulator DGCA has announced that Indian airlines have decided to avoid the “affected part of the Iranian airspace and re-route their flights” after American aviation regulator prohibited US-registered aircraft from operating “in the overwater of the Tehran Flight Information Region until further notice”. Pompeo’s visit would give India the chance to engage in these subjects, which currently occupy the minds of the country’s leading mandarins. 

It is just as well that India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar is well versed in the art of diplomacy because he will need all the skill at his command to convince America’s top diplomat of India’s interests and aspirations, ensuring that they do not contradict the American position under an unpredictable US President. Iran is not the only issue at stake. During his June 25-27 visit, Pompeo is expected to deliver a major public lecture, addressing the next generation of Indian youth and discuss tricky issues like H1B visas for IT workers and Indian plans for data localisation. The US has not officially informed India about any plans in relation to H1B visas. The two sides would focus on preparations for the Trump-Modi meeting expected on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka on June 28-29, which too is significant. 

On the table are other sensitive subjects like India’s proposed purchase of Russian S-400 anti-missile systems, which the Americans are opposing tooth and nail. If India goes ahead with the S-400 deal, it would be difficult for Washington to offer high technology hardware like F-35 combat aircraft. It puts India in a bind, the likes of which it has not confronted with any American administration since Richard Nixon, nearly half-a-century ago. Also up for discussion are difficult issues like trade and 5G telecommunications. It would need Indian diplomacy to be at its best to safeguard its interests in the face of a rampaging Uncle Sam, because what is at stake is a bilateral Indo-US trade of about $150 billion.