DNA Edit: Russian Roulette

The world may soon have to get ready for a new war — the war to preserve and fight information. So far, strong-arm tactics such as the expelling of diplomats, the threat of trade sanctions and nuclear missiles have remained the ‘weapons’ of choice for countries, to ‘punish bad behaviour’. But now Moscow seems to be introducing another element — information warfare.

Currently, Russian naval ships are underwater and uncomfortably close to communication cables that belong to Europe and the US. Should they stop or cut these cables, a financial disaster is in the making. Most of the world’s calls, emails, and texts will be affected and an estimated $10 trillion worth of daily financial transactions will be wiped out. All interactions, from the mundane to the more serious, will be affected. From a student Skyping his parents in India from the US, to US military leaders trying to coordinate with their troops in Afghanistan, not to mention daily banking transactions — all of them will be affected.

Unsurprisingly, Moscow has made no comment about its motives. But with analysts claiming that such Russian naval activity has not been seen since the ’80s suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin, smarting from the fact that over 100 diplomats from his country have been expelled, will definitely look to be using the cables as a bargaining chip. These are the big questions — what exactly does Putin want and how much can the West concede to him without having to climb down from the tough positions that they have taken so far. The first point of negotiation is business.

Going to war in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, Putin needs trade and investments, especially after the West-imposed sanctions on Moscow post-Ukraine. There can also be some give and take on some common issues of concern such as involving Russia on dismantling Iran’s nuclear weapons system, dismantling Syria’s chemical weapons system, and involving Moscow in curbing Islamic extremism — an issue Moscow is especially concerned about. The West must ponder each scenario very carefully keeping in mind that Putin has been given an overwhelming mandate by the Russian people and can exercise almost any option that he wishes.

They would also be aware that such headaches are likely to recur so all current concessions to Moscow must be weighed up with caution as Putin, next time round, is likely to punch above his weight. He is already doing so with his talk of a new Yalta 2.0. Having said this, they know that Putin is well aware that as far as conventional warfare is concerned he is outmatched and they know that pulling out or snapping information cables can lead to an invitation to war, especially with an unpredictable President Donald Trump at the helm of affairs in the US. So while the West should be concerned and certainly look at new strategies with which to deal with the Russian President they should also be aware that Putin has as much to lose as they do should this ‘information war’ get out of hand. It’s now just a case of whoever calls chicken first.