DNA Edit: Regional games - US and Pakistan will keep India out of Afghanistan

In her seminal account of the Pakistan Army, ‘Fighting to the End’, writer C Christine Fair traces the contours of the US-Pakistan relations since its inception.

Pakistan, born during the Cold War, immediately leaned towards the West. In September 1947, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, proclaimed that “Pakistan (is) a democracy and Communism does not flourish on the soil of Islam. It is clear, therefore, our interests lie with the two democratic countries, namely the UK and the USA, rather than Russia.”

India, by contrast, practised neutrality. Within two months of becoming a separate nation, Jinnah invited the US “to become the principal source of economic support” for Pakistan and formally requested a $2-billion loan for a period of two years.  It would be fair to say that the guiding principles of US-Pakistan relations have remained the same, never mind the different administrations that have come and gone in the six-seven decades.

The contours of the ongoing visit of Pakistan premier, Imran Khan, should be seen in this light. Top of his agenda are two subjects, namely defence and financial assistance. Islamabad’s priority areas are to seek resumption of US military aid — getting American help for loans from the IMF and other Western-controlled financial organisations — and most important of all, getting US assistance to help Pakistan’s removal from the FATF greylist.

It would be a mistake to see Imran’s listless welcome in Washington as a snub to Pakistan: it probably is, but Pakistan is used to such short shrift, as long as it can get its work done. It may be more appropriate to see the country’s strategic position as the gateway to Afghanistan and the energy-rich Central Asian countries, both regions where American interest are deeply entrenched.

If Pakistan wants a favour from the US, so does Uncle Sam. Although President Trump has been tough on Pakistan and cut military assistance to it, yet the US needs Islamabad’s help to broker peace in Afghanistan between the Taliban and the Afghan government forces. Only then will Trump be able to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan and redeem a campaign promise before the next elections are due in the US. Additionally, Washington also needs Pakistan for logistical support to supply its forces in Afghanistan. It is also premature to write off the mischief Pakistan is capable of.

The most illustrative example of it is the recent talks on Afghanistan to craft out a peace agreement with the Taliban, which includes Pakistan, US, Russia and China. This one single development has demonstrated how Islamabad has moved to the center stage in the Afghan peace process, and how India has been dealt out of the future of Afghanistan. India’s participation has been negligible in the situation, while Pakistan has used the opportunity to manoeuvre itself as the principal negotiator in the region’s geopolitics. Pro-Indian Afghans have expressed dismay at India being pushed to the margins, given its 18-year-long involvement in rebuilding Afghanistan and the investments it has made in the war-torn country. To be sure, Afghanistan is going to be top-of-the mind for both countries.