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| Edited By: DNA |Source: DNA |Updated: Apr 17, 2019, 07:05 AM IST
Top weather forecasters in India agree only on a few things like the prevalence of the El Nino factor. On most other aspects, crucially the state of rainfall in 2019, opinion is divided. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country’s official government weather forecaster, has predicted that India is likely to have a ‘near normal’ monsoon this year. Under this category, the IMD has slotted rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the long-period average, which is 890 mm. Now comes the divergence. As opposed to IMD, private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted a below par monsoon at 93 per cent quantitative rainfall over the long period average. Skymet based its forecast of a below normal monsoon on projections that indicated 80 per cent chance of El Nino conditions between March and May.
Why is there divergence between different weather forecasters? While a final conclusion is difficult to arrive at, experts say supercomputers take those initial conditions and then use mathematical equations to come up with a forecast. There’s no perfect algorithm because the country is so big that it is impossible to have observational data for every parcel of air. If there is a consensus among meteorological agencies across the country and even the world, it the omnipresence of El Nino. However, the weakening of El Nino happens slowly and there is also discussion between agencies on how the effects will linger. Look at it anyway, the picture will become clearer in the next two months. For India, the threat is very real, because her agriculture — still dependent largely on the monsoon — may be hit by weak rains during June and July, the peak season for sowing of the kharif crop.
