DNA Edit: Growth vs doom – When numbers can be misleading

It is said that numbers don’t lie but they can be presented in a manner to twist the truth. This manipulation is at the heart of the growth story debate between the Congress and the BJP. The data from the National Statistical Commission, which “credited UPA with registering higher economic growth than the NDA” was bound to become a major point of contention. The Congress looked at the figures to draw a rosy picture while the BJP used the same statistics to paint a canvas of gloom and doom. For the common citizen, what really matters is the tangible improvement in the quality of life, evident in low inflation, greater purchasing power, savings, healthcare, education, so on and so forth. 

It’s true, as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley pointed out, that the UPA came to power in 2004 when the global economy was on the upswing. Its immediate predecessor, the NDA, had cleared the runway for India’s growth story to take off. UPA-I’s ‘dream run’ couldn’t have been possible without NDA’s impressive accomplishments between 1999 and 2004 when GDP per capita grew at an average 6.1 per cent. UPA-I built on the good work done by the NDA. The first Manmohan Singh government was blessed with a particularly propitious timing. The economy was jetting ahead with the growth rate accelerating to eight per cent, inflation restricted to four per cent overall, and two per cent on food, the budget deficit under four per cent. Everything seemed under control, with even a surplus of two per cent in current account. 

However, the gains accrued during UPA-I were frittered away in UPA II with the economy slowing down due to internal problems. In 2013, the rupee had crashed after India’s current account and fiscal deficits ballooned out of control. The corruption charges levelled during UPA-I – coal block allocation and 2G spectrum – undermined public confidence in UPA-II, though it was still voted to power for the second time. The UPA suffered from a major policy crisis as the government seemed weak and indecisive. That was one of the primary causes for its downfall. When the Modi government swept to power, the global economy had slowed down. 

Still, India posted significant economic growth, coming second only to China. What is interesting in the ongoing debate is that numbers are being used to obfuscate reality. The circumstances influencing the rise and fall of UPA had changed with the Modi-led dispensation steering India’s trajectory. More importantly, a statement from the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) on Sunday, mentioned that “estimates in the report are not official estimates and are meant only to facilitate taking a decision on the appropriate approach”. Simply stating, there are other methods to calculate back series and that all of them should be used to get a clearer picture of the economy and to ascertain the highest decadal growth. The Opposition would be ill-advised to slip into amnesia. The UPA years were termed as the decade of missed opportunities by the very people who chose to register their displeasure through their votes.