DNA Edit: Drought respite – Monsoon has reached Kerala, but it is a long way to go

This is that time of the year when weather experts and pundits contemplate the arrival of monsoon, the backbone of India’s agriculture and indeed, her happiness quotient. The signs, thus far, are ominous. After a week of delay, the southwest monsoon finally hit the Kerala coast on Saturday, bringing respite from the sweltering heat and raising hopes for the farmers, already battling rural distress. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), country’s official weather forecasting agency, said several parts of the state as well as Lakshadweep, have received good rainfall. What begins in Kerala, takes more than a couple of weeks to travel to the dusty plains and the food bowls of North India. 

Accordingly, the season in Mumbai is expected to kick-start next week, around the same time when rains will be likely to have arrived in Maharashtra’s coastal districts of Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg. Traditionally, the arrival of monsoon rains in Kerala is taken as a harbinger of good news, particularly this year when the prospect of drought looms large over many parts of the country, including its commercial capital Mumbai. The stock in the reservoirs supplying water to the city has plunged to an abysmal 10 per cent. Maharashtra is experiencing its worst drought in 49 years. While the four-month rainy season has officially started, it is going to be some time before it covers the West, Central and North India, where temperatures have been searing, setting new records. 

Poor pre-monsoon showers have been lowest in the past six decades and the anticipated delay in rains have forced farmers to push back sowing of crops. Growers of grains, pulses, cotton and sugarcane typically wait for the monsoon to start before they begin planting. Any deficit in showers during the early part of the season could delay sowing and reduce crops, even if it rains well later. Monsoon accounts for more than 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and the nation’s crop output as well as the economy are heavily dependent on it. The situation has become so tentative because of the predictability barrier — until the rains come, nothing can be said with certainty. 

Last year, both Skymet and the IMD, had forecasted a ‘normal’ monsoon. Yet, by the end of last southwest monsoon season (June to September), the rainfall departure in the country was nine per cent, which is considered ‘below normal’. One after the other, several states were declared drought-hit. Today, almost half the country is facing drought with at least 16 per cent falling in the extreme drought category, as mapped by the monitoring system of IIT Gandhinagar. Some climate scientists have gone so far as to even raise questions about any viable forecast. They say that 50 per cent chance of ‘normal’ monsoon is a safe bet because it is neither normal nor abnormal, and doesn’t convey anything. Add to it El Nino, which adversely impacts the Indian monsoon. El Nino results in less rain and corresponding higher temperatures.