DNA Edit: Democracy wins

Irrespective of which way the tide turns for Gujarat, early signs coming in from the ground are a cause of celebration for the vibrant democracy that thrives in Gujarat. Reports indicate that the first phase of elections held in southern Gujarat and Saurashtra recorded a healthy 68 per cent turnout of voters, an indication that the people of the state have a strong mandate to deliver, be it in favour of or against the BJP. This has been a heated battle and a number of times both the BJP and the Congress can be charged with playing electoral tactics that were clearly below the belt and in extremely bad taste. In the run-up to the first phase, Mani Shankar Aiyar’s “neech aadmi” comment has done a great disservice to the electoral prospects of the Congress. BJP was quick to cash in on Aiyar’s gaffe and largely succeeded in projecting the Congress as a party of elitists with no deep roots in Gujarat or solicitude for the people of the state. To be fair, Congress jump-started its damage control mode soon enough, but how effective was it in mitigating the umbrage will be for the polls to tell.

However, there are larger issues afflicting Gujarat that will dictate the inclination of the voters rather than the mole-sized issues that have been magnified manifold under the round-the-clock media gaze. One of them is the large-scale alienation of the traders and merchants’ community in Gujarat on account of the GST implementation. The anger against BJP is not directed at the tax itself but the shoddy manner in which the infrastructure surrounding the tax is functioning. A common refrain is that small traders are forever occupied in completing the paperwork for tax returns leaving them with no time to attend to other pressing concerns. Another threat has been that of Hardik Patel, the 23-year-old leader of the Patidaar Anamat Andolan Samiti, who has chipped away at the strong BJP following in the Patel community. The Patels, as a vote bank in Gujarat, comprise 15 per cent of the total votes, and Hardik has managed to pull off the enviable task of solidifying the community vote under him. All the exit polls till now have shown the BJP emerging as the winner, but inching closer to the elections, the victory margin seems to have shrunk considerably.

However, many within the BJP are quite optimistic about the party’s electoral prospects despite the visible estrangement of the Patidar community. They counter that the BJP has tasted success in making inroads within a number of OBC communities. Besides the OBC communities, there are the extremely backward communities in Gujarat which the BJP has cultivated for a long time now. The two backward communities together command a substantial number of votes in 110 out of the 182 seats going to the polls in Gujarat. If these two communities do come through on their commitment to the BJP, then there is no stopping the party from commanding a redoubtable share of the Assembly. However, even here, local leaders like Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani might be acting as spoilers. The matrix of the Gujarat Assembly polls, as it is now, is extremely complicated and near unpredictable. But then December 18 is not far off.