DNA Edit: Battle for Presidency

By the 25th of July, India will have its 14th President, after a contest, which by the looks of it can either go down to the wire or be a humdrum affair. Whether the elections will see a weak and fragmented opposition flexing its muscles against the NDA or will it be a politically syncretic effort will be determined by whether the BJP and its allies support another term for the incumbent President Pranab Mukherjee. Already, the Bihar Chief Minister has shown inclination for backing Mukherjee. This week, Nitish Kumar called on the BJP to initiate talks with opposition parties for building a consensus supporting President Mukherjee for a second term. The Congress has also shown that it is inclined to endorse such a move.

Further, speculation is rife in political corridors that West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is also on board to lend her unstinted backing — as she did in 2012 — if Mukherjee is agreed upon as the joint opposition’s presidential candidate. Even the current President has, reportedly, made it clear that he will be interested in a second term as long as the government backs his candidature. There are other names doing the rounds as well — political heavyweights like Sharad Pawar, Manmohan Singh, Vice-President Hamid Ansari and Sushma Swaraj. But these names are not likely to elicit an all-party consensus.

An opposition, which has been squarely routed in UP assembly elections and in Delhi MCD polls, knows very well which way the wind is blowing and might instead choose to not participate in an all-out contest against the BJP to avoid embarrassment. Even for the BJP, striking an accord with the opposition on Mukherjee’s bid can turn out to be a sensible choice, given that the NDA’s hold over the electoral college — that comprises of elected members of the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and members of legislative assemblies — is merely 48.10% vis-a-vis a 51.90% control that a united opposition can wield.  

If the NDA, on the other hand, decides to throw down the gauntlet, it will have to bridge a gap of 17,404 in vote-value terms, to elect its own President. For these votes, the BJP will have its hands full trying to persuade the AIADMK to take its side, which commands that key chunk of 5.5% of the electoral college.  If it secures the AIADMK’s assistance, then the BJP can easily sail through. However, if the AIADMK is to put its weight behind a united Opposition that seems to be rallying behind the Congress, then the BJP could be in for a defeat, giving a rather comatose opposition some cause for cheer.