DNA Edit: Bad monsoon - Sadly, Indian agriculture & economy are guided by rains

No sooner the summer arrives that speculation about monsoon begins. And if El Nino is projected to be around somewhere, then it can only mean bad news. Well, the bad news is that this year, monsoon rainfall is going to be below normal. Downgrading its initial assessment of normal rains, private weather forecaster Skymet has said that India is likely to see a below-normal monsoon due to the projected presence of El Nino. The forecaster pegged countrywide rainfall during the monsoon period, which falls between June-September, at 93 per cent of the long-period, but what is of greater concern to Indian agriculture - still dependent largely on monsoon - is the dire prediction of weak rains during June and July, peak season for sowing of the kharif or summer crop. If the forecast holds true, then 2019 will become the third successive year of below normal monsoon, raising serious questions about the availability of water.

The fact remains that Indian economy, still largely agricultural, is dependent on the quantity of monsoon rain as a large part of the crop comes from monsoon-fed crops. A weak or bad rain is always considered a big set back to India’s economy, invariably impacting the country’s GDP levels. Though improved irrigation and availability of electricity has reduced this dependence to a small extent, it is equally true that hydel power generation, ground water availability and its recharge are nearly entirely dictated by monsoon rains. A major portion of the country’s crop area is totally dependent upon them, as they are not equipped with methods of manual irrigation. With such a significant percentage of the country’s economy being guided by agriculture, weak monsoon results in crop failure, which in turn lowers production and translates into price rise, low industrial output and other related issues.