The storm raging over Maharashtra’s political landscape, virtually threatening to upset the 25-year-old Sena-BJP alliance has its genesis elsewhere. It can be traced to the BJP’s poor showing at the bypolls — where the much-touted Modi magic failed to deliver at the hustings. A puffed-up Sena has emerged more confident in the recent days, secure in the belief that it no longer needs to piggyback on its senior partner as it did in the last general elections. The reflection of that new-found confidence was evident in the last three days, resulting in a series of high-pitched dramas that sought to test the fate of the combine. The Sena’s final offer of 119 seats for the BJP has been rejected by the latter. The BJP is allegedly threatening to go alone.
As a regional party, the Sena’s very existence depends on the clout it wields in the state. Consequently, Uddhav Thackeray was in no mood to entertain the BJP’s earlier demand for 130 seats. There came a point on Sunday when the parting of ways looked inevitable.
However, beneath all that brinkmanship, both partners know how crucial it is for them to keep the love-hate relationship alive. In several pockets of rural Maharashtra, the Sena stands to gain from the BJP network, while in Mumbai and Marathwada, the BJP would require Sena’s muscle to brighten up its prospects. A rift, days before the elections on October 15, when they seem to be within sniffing distance of power, can prove to be disastrous.
The Sena’s insistence on the 2009 seat-sharing agreement is unreasonable, given the BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls when it won 23 seats against the Sena’s 18. Though there has been a sea change in the political scene since the 2009 assembly elections — largely favouring the BJP — the party’s accomplishment back then was impressive when it managed 46 seats by fielding candidates in 119 constituencies. In contrast, the Sena’s performance was lacklustre — 44 victories from the 169 seats it had contested.
What has piqued the curiosity of political pundits is the decision of the BJP’s central leadership to allow the state unit to handle the seat-sharing crisis. It appears that Amit Shah has chosen to take a backseat as state leaders try and broker a deal with Uddhav. No doubt, Shah, the spin doctor and the mastermind behind BJP’s unprecedented gains from UP in the Lok Sabha is taking it slow after the party’s drubbing in the by-elections.
The bypolls have had a rejuvenating effect for the Congress and the NCP as well, though the alliance seems to have run into rough weather over seat-sharing. A normally reticent Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan has expressed desire to be at the helm if he steers the coalition to victory. Deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar of the NCP, who harbours CM ambitions, wouldn’t let go of his dreams without a fight, and that could spell trouble for the Congress. Yet, the coalition partners realise that it is in their best interests to put up a joint fight against the saffron brigade.
In the days to come, there will be more public spats in the saffron camp. This has now become a battle of nerves. If it’s a four-cornered fight over 288 seats, then it becomes uncertain for all the major political parties.