Edit: Modi momentum

The BJP is ecstatic that it has at last a leader who can win national and state elections for the party, almost rivalling the putative pan-Indian appeal of the Congress’s first family, the Nehru-Gandhis. His appeal seems to cut across caste lines and regions. The happy electoral outcomes appear to be the fruit of his labours. What Modi managed to do for the BJP in May’s Lok Sabha elections, he has done it in the assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra in October. There is a clear majority in Haryana and it is the single largest party in Maharashtra. The details of the election results reveal a complex and even intricate political tapestry but as far as the big picture goes, Modi is the man who has made the difference to the party’s electoral fortunes. He has shown the same focused aggression in his election campaigns as did former Indian cricket captain Saurav Ganguly or former Australian cricket captain Ricky Ponting in strategising about their matches. Modi has an able and efficient vice-captain in BJP president Amit Shah. The Modi-Shah duo has scored its first major victory in these two states, both of which are important in terms of symbolism. In the two states, the BJP has unseated Congress governments.

There is of course the hard reality that the Congress had been ruling for a decade in Haryana under Bhupinder Singh Hooda, and for 15 years in Maharashtra in coalition with Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The people voted for change and the anti-incumbency factor was indeed hanging heavily in the air. There is of course the counter-example of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where BJP was returned to power for a third time in 2012 and 2013, and it will be argued that there is nothing inexorable about anti-incumbency. The Congress governments in Haryana and Maharashtra could have bucked the anti-incumbency trend but they did not. 

The problems that Congress faces in defending its perch seem to be quite obvious. There is complacency, arrogance and corruption or charges of corruption. The outgoing Haryana Chief Minister Hooda has been accused of neglecting non-Jat sections of society in the state, and whether the grievance is justified or not, the perception is pretty strong. The BJP has managed to tap into the dissatisfaction. In Maharashtra too, successive Chief Ministers, the late Vilasrao Deshmukh and Ashok Chavan faced controversies and allegations. Outgoing Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan faced mounting internal dissension. And there was coalition friction with the NCP and the allegations against state NCP leader and Sharad Pawar’s nephew, Ajit Pawar. There were then enough troubles in the Congress’s  backyard.

While the BJP  is slipping into the Congress mode of depending on a single leader, the Congress’s singular leaders, party president Sonia Gandhi and vice president Rahul Gandhi, show signs of being clueless as to what ails the party. It would seem that more than anything or anyone else, it is the mother-son duo which has become a liability to the party. It is a proposition that many Congress insiders know but they refuse to accept the fact staring them in the face. The day Modi fails, or even Shah flounders, the party brass will replace them. Congress is helplessly tied to Sonia and Rahul and it is convinced that the party cannot do without them. The demand from a section of the Congress that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra should be inducted is an extension of the same dependency syndrome. In 2003, senior BJP leader LK Advani expressed concern over the waning of Congress and the need for a strong opposition party. Of course, the Congress bounced back in 2004 and again in 2009. It is in the dumps again and it will have to claw its way out of the pit.