Will China’s designs on the Brahmaputra leave India parched?

For sometime now, strategic analysts have been projecting the view that if oil was the cause of wars in the 20th century, water could be a critical trigger for wars in the 21st century. They claim that dispute over the sharing of water between countries could contribute to tensions leading to regional conflagration.

With climate change leading to the decreased inflow of water into the Himalayan rivers, water disputes among the countries sharing waters of the Himalayan rivers is expected to assume serious proportions in the years ahead.

Not long back, Sardar Asef Ali, an adviser to the Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, had remarked that the sharing of river water is a sensitive issue and it could trigger a war between India and Pakistan. Without mincing words, he said, “India will have to stop stealing Pakistan’s water as the latter will not hesitate to wage a war”. He also said that the Indus water treaty was a proper forum for resolving the water dispute between the two countries.

Against this backdrop, the most recent Chinese plan to diver the water of Brahmaputra to its Xinjiang provinces which is water deficient is a matter of concern for India. For an overwhelming proportion of the population in north eastern India is dependent on this river for its very survival.

Following a mounting concern in the political circles over the Chinese move, India’s External Affairs Minister SM Krishna informed the Indian Parliament in June that India will take up the issue with China after getting proper feedback on the Chinese plan on the Brahmaputra diversion project.

But then in the absence of a well formulated treaty on river water sharing between the two countries, one is not sure as to how China will respond to the Indian objections. Moreover, the lack of transparency on the part of Chinese authorities on its projects for harnessing the water of the Brahmaputra could definitely make the situation complicated for India.

A section of the Indian strategic analysts feel that the Chinese plan to impede the flow of the Brahmaputra river into India through water control projects is a logical extension of China’s widely discussed “String of Pearls” strategy. And by denying India the due share of Brahmaputra, China could unleash a sort of ecological and hydrological havocs over north eastern India.

The mighty and magnificent Brahmaputra river, known as Yarlung Tsangpo in China flows for about 1,625km inside the Tibetan autonomous region of China before entering the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. China was forced into admitting to India about the construction of the Zangmu dam, which is meant to boost power availability in Tibet, only after the pictures made available by the Indian remote sensing satellites revealed construction activities at Lhokha prefecture of Tibet.

Though China has denied the possibility of the Zangmu project adversely affecting the flow of the Brahmaputra into India, the decreased flow of river water into India especially during the lean periods cannot be ruled out. Far more worrisome to India would be the long term Chinese plan to divert around 200-billion cubic metres of Brahmaputra water annually for feeding the depleting Yellow river.

Of course, this grandiose project is still in an intense discussion state. Chinese President, Hu Jintao, a hydro engineer by profession is known to have evinced interest in the project that would focus on diverting Brahmaputra to water scarce Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin regions.

In the event of this gigantic project taking shape, its consequences for India and Bangladesh could be catastrophic .For it substantially decrease the availability of Brahmaputra waters to both India and Bangladesh. This project at present known as Western canal is expected to be completed only by 2050.

The Chinese plan to impound Brahmaputra as part of the diversion project could also affect the ambitious plan of Arunachal Pradesh to exploit the hydro power potentials of Brahmaputra and its subsidiaries. In the ultimate analysis, India will be forced to remain at the mercy of China which can withhold waters of Brahmaputra for power generation and irrigation during the dry season and release water during the flood season with very serious consequences for north eastern India and Bangladesh.

China has both the technical competence and resources base to realise this massive water control project involving the construction of 28 dams.

A section of the Indian analysts hold the view that India’s fear over Chinese plans to divert the water of Brahmaputra is ill-founded. They argue that after the river enters the Indian territory, it gathers sufficient water. Nevertheless, countries sharing the Brahmaputra waters should put in place a mechanism to avoid building up tension over the perceived inequality in the sharing of the Brahmaputra waters.