Comment

The poor masses of Uttar Pradesh are preparing to vote in a new government. They have drunk the wines in different bottles and discarded them so many times that they know they are not going to get anything substantially different. At the same time they know that only the ballot gives them some say in their political destiny, and they are determined not to lose this privilege just because politicians do not measure up.

The picture is becoming clearer as the election commission dusts the voting machines for a long drawn poll schedule. There is no doubt that the Dalits, particularly the Jatavs, have consolidated behind ‘Behenji’ and her Bahujan Samaj Party. They have, by and large, rejected the overtures of other parties and decided to stay with the one leader under whose rule they have at least got a voice.

The Jatavs, among the most impoverished of UP’s poor, now do not hesitate to speak for the BSP in public. This itself is a huge shift in the politics of the state, where the Dalits spent the decades since Independence in tenements outside the villages, remaining ‘untouchables’ for all others. They were beaten and even killed for voting independently of the castes that liked to rule them, and it is only in this election that one hears them speaking for themselves and for Mayawati in the crowded streets of UP’s towns. The situation has not changed entirely, but at least a process has begun.

The Muslim and Brahmin votes that joined theDalit in giving Mayawati over 200 seats in the last assembly have, however, deserted her. Both are bitter about the chief minister, accusing her of being autocratic and of neglecting their interests. She, of course, has not changed, remaining the ‘queen’ with not a single ‘leader’ allowed to emerge from the BSP. She remains in control, deciding on every candidate and the campaign structure.

Mayawati appears confident, but well-placed sources say she is not. Her nervousness is evident from her decision to give an unprecedented number of seats to Muslims and other backwards, with Brahmins, too, getting a good share. The mantra, however, does not seem to be working. A great deal will depend on her party’s ability to mobilise her sizable Dalit vote on polling day.

The Samajwadi Party and Mulayam Singh appear to be on the comeback trail through an offensive designed to win back the Muslim vote. The split with Kalyan Singh, the announcement of ‘true’ reservations for the community, the broad hint about trying those responsible for the Babri Masjid, and the extensive development package for minorities seem to have made an impact. The Muslims are rushing back to ‘Netaji’, with whom they clearly have sentimental attachment.

It took several elections for the minorities to desert him, and this time Mulayam Singh is making no mistakes. Even the imam of Jama Masjid has been floated to bring in the stray votes for Muslim-Yadav consolidation. Mulayam Singh has an advantage in his son Akhilesh Yadav, who has moved out on his own, addressing huge rallies, meeting and living with people, and striking a rapport independently of his father. He is cutting across castes and communities with something to offer all along with a message of generational change.

The Congress, despite Rahul Gandhi and, now, Sonia Gandhi, continues to battle for third place with the BJP. After predicting a tally of over 100 seats, reality has sunk in and party managers are citing figures closer to 70. Individual Congress candidates who have a hold in their constituencies are potential winners, but by and large the party is unable to rouse the masses. The Muslims are definitely a little more generous this time around in their views about the Congress but have started making it clear that this does not mean they will vote for it.

The party does not have an organisation on the ground. The earlier leaders have all been discarded, including recognised Brahmins like ND Tiwari, who still has a hold in parts of UP. The new leaders are barely recognised in their mohallas.

Another problem hitting the Congress is its reluctance to field other leaders in UP apart from the Nehru-Gandhi family. Everyone has been told to keep away, with the result that the campaign remains lukewarm. The media, of course, is giving much publicity to Rahul Gandhi’s meetings, but this euphoria is not matched on the ground. Except for some pockets the Congress is fighting a tough battle. Party candidates fear that ultimately the absence of an effective organisation may let them down.

The BJP is clear that its fight is with the Congress for third place. Unfortunately for it, nothing seems to be working. It does not have a local leadership to boast of and cannot project a chief ministerial candidate of consequence. It has no issues to raise, with the communal card not working in UP anymore.

The party hopes to benefit from the confusion within the upper castes and its own support among sections of the OBCs. The BJP is also optimistic about the three- or four-way division of the Muslim vote in some constituencies, because of which its candidate will get through.But unlike the drum beaters in the Congress, the party admits it is in a difficult position and will be fortunate to hold its last tally of 50-odd seats.

For the moment, the voter has his/her spot in the sun, and knows it. The writer is a senior New Delhi-based journalist