Jayadeva Ranade: Beijing’s stunt was ill-timed

Beijing’s unwillingness to make serious efforts to settle the border issue with India was clearly borne out by its petulance exhibited at the convening of a four-day religious international conference of Buddhists in Delhi.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao too, during his visit to Delhi last winter, had indicated that the border issue would be put on the back-burner explaining that it was complicated and should be sorted out by successive generations. Beijing’s reaction to the Buddhist conference in Delhi simultaneously highlights that Beijing is suspicious of the nature of India-US relations, that its policy concerning the Dalai Lama remains brittle, and that the Dalai Lama’s activities continue to be a convenient excuse to try and pressurise nations.

On this occasion, however, China has succeeded only in denting its international image. More importantly, its action is likely to have domestic repercussions. It will be a setback to its efforts to use Buddhism for promoting domestic harmony, appease the Tibetans inside China, and reassure the other minority nationalities.

When Beijing’s insistence that the Indian government prohibit the Dalai Lama from addressing a global Buddhist conference in Delhi was rejected, it upped the ante and demanded that the conference itself be scrapped. When Delhi declined, Beijing called off the scheduled Special Representative-level talks to discuss the border issue.

Beijing’s actions triggered widespread resentment among the ‘Sangharajas’, ‘Mahanayakas’, Buddhist patriarchs and other religious personages assembled in Delhi for the conference.  A Eurasian Buddhist delegate described China’s actions as ‘a slap not on the Indian government’s face, but to Buddhists around the world.’ He asked ‘how can Beijing tell us where and when to meet?’ These sentiments will definitely get transmitted across the Tibetan community inside China.

Beijing’s action coincides with the simmering resentment among Tibetans in China. This would have been heightened by the Dalai Lama’s speech of September 24, as evidenced by the at least eleven instances of self-immolation by Tibetan monks inside China since then. Outbreaks of protests in monasteries, like the Kirti monastery, have been reported.

The sentiment was reflected a few months ago in popular resistance to Gyaincain Norbu, the Chinese-nominated Panchen Lama. On the occasion of the 60th anniversary celebrations of the Tibet Autonomous Region around May 2011, the Chinese authorities sought to garner legitimacy for Gyaincain Norbu by positioning him in Labrang Tashi Khyil Monastery in Tibet’s Amdo region. Plans had to be deferred, however, due to opposition from local Tibetans.

There is restiveness across China too. The Uyghur-dominated Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region has witnessed violent protests in recent months and security forces in Xinjiang have been strengthened over the past year. The increase in cost of living, rising food prices, anger against corrupt cadres, etc have led to the mushrooming of popular protests and demonstrations across China. A confidential Tsinghua University survey estimated that 180,000 disturbances occurred throughout China last year.

Anticipating increased popular unrest, China’s 11th National People’s Congress, or its version of parliament, in March 2011, approved an allocation of $ 95 billion for the internal security apparatus — even higher than this year’s considerably boosted defence budget!

There can be little doubt that Beijing was aware of the dates for the global Buddhist conference and could have sought deferment of the talks earlier. It is known to have a good network within the Tibetan Diaspora and effective cyber hacking capabilities.

Beijing’s actions appear really to reflect its irritation at its foreign policy reversals on the South China Sea issue and in the Asia-Pacific region consequent to US President Obama’s tour to Australia and accompanying US diplomatic activity. China’s perception about US motives was articulated on November 28, by Major General Luo Yuan. Commenting on Obama’s visit to Asia in the authoritative Chinese Communist Party paper, People’s Daily and reproduced by the official Global Times, he declared: ‘The United States is making much of its ‘return to Asia,’ has been positioning pieces and forces on China’s periphery, and the intent is very clear — this is aimed at China, to contain China.’ This commentary has since gone viral on the net.

In the context of India-China relations, Beijing’s action was ill-timed. Both countries were aware of the plans of the global Buddhist conference. Delhi had apprised Beijing that, keeping in mind its sensitivities, India’s political leadership would not attend the conference. Beijing nevertheless called off the border talks, though its response is tempered by the decision to go ahead with defence secretary-level talks.

This suggests that the cancellation was motivated more by pique at the reversal of its policy on the South China Sea issue and suspicion of the nature of warmth in Indo-US relations, than with the Dalai Lama addressing the conference. Delhi’s response though, signals to Beijing that it will not yield on substantive issues of sovereignty or values.