'Garibi hatao' in another garb

The seats are still being counted as this piece is being written. But the peoples’ verdict for the 15th Lok Sabha is clear:  Congress is in and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is out. These results could, indeed, be a surprise for many political pundits, pollsters and bragging TV anchors.  But they are a tribute to Sonia Gandhi’s agenda of inclusive growth and inclusive India.

It is time to look at the political reality of India, both at micro and macro levels. How did the Sonia Gandhi magic work when the LK Advani charm didn’t? Let us understand the Sonia agenda over the past five years. In 2004, she sensed that the market-led economy may be good for the Sensex, but it does not auger well for political parties in a democracy. She had seen Vajpayee losing power on the mirage of ‘Shining India’. Sonia also sensed that rural India counts much more in electoral victory than a booming Sensex. Ideologically too, Sonia had sensed that the Hindutva agenda had run full circle. It was time to make India more inclusive and take Muslims along with “secularism”. 

Sonia worked hard on her vision of ‘inclusive growth’ and ‘inclusive social agenda’. There was nothing new here. It’s the old Nehru-Gandhi family vision for India. Sonia’s aam aadmi is the same as Indira Gandhi’s gareeb aadmi. Her insistence on secularism is the Nehruvian principle of ‘unity in diversity’.

Sonia’s greatness lay in carving out new ways to implement the old Nehru-Indira model in times when the vocal middle classes and media were pushing for a market economy.

How did she do this without much hullabaloo? “Inclusive growth” included starving villages into the Indian economy after a long time. And, from this point emerged two major schemes for rural India.

The first was the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) with 100 days of employment for one member in every family. Her second was the loan waiver for farmers. The result was that rural India was shining by the time India went to polls on April 16. And, it also meant the aam aadmi’s support for the Congress.

Sonia’s mantras for inclusive growth also meant no blanket support to market economy. Instead, she quietly pushed for the State’s active involvement in the economy — something that was looked down upon for 20 years. No public sector company was put on the auction block during the five years of UPA rule.

Instead, government employees were given massive pay hikes, right from peons to teachers to secretaries. It was a clear deviation the past and from the two decade-old practice of letting the government step aside for the markets. The move on the ground pleased millions of middle class government employees who were BJP supporters till 2004. They switched their loyalty to the Congress in 2009. And, the Congress party is now smiling. 

The third and final factor that led to the Congress surge in 2009 was the solid rock-like Muslim support to the Congress Party. The story of Indian Muslims over the last 20 years was of recurring communal riots. Right from when the Babri Masjid’s gates were opened in 1986 till the Muslim massacre in 2002 in Gujarat, communal violence has haunted Muslims.

Events like the Babri demolition coupled with massive riots across the country in 1992, the Mumbai riots of 1993 and the Gujarat massacre in 2002 left India’s largest minority harassed and pining for security. Besides, the rise of the BJP with its Hindutva agenda pushed Muslims to the wall.

Amidst this great sense of security the Congress-led UPA ensured a virtually riot-free five years. In this era of caste politics, Muslims in some states count as the single largest vote-bank if they vote as one. Sonia ensued them security and the Muslims voted largely for the Congress across the country. The Congress is now happily counting on their support even in a state like Uttar Pradesh.

The 2009 verdict is largely the people’s endorsement of Sonia’s agenda of inclusive growth for inclusive India. The verdict at the macro level reflects the revival of the Congress as the principal national party and the decline of BJP at the national level. The Gandhis are back at centre stage while it’s the end of the road for Advani and his hardcore Hindutva vision.