By-polls show Congress’s alarming decline

By-elections are normally not indicative of the nation’s general mood. Nor do they usually go against the incumbent party. But this time, while the by-poll in Daraunda, Bihar, showed that Nitish Kumar’s magic continues to hold sway, this was not the case in Haryana, Maharashtra or Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress has been in power on its own or in alliance with partners.

The results have shown that the ground is slipping from under the Congress party’s feet in states under its belt, whereas there are little signs of its revival in states where it has been out of power, as in Bihar.

The Hisar defeat was expected because the Congress lost there even in 2009, even as it had won all the other nine Lok Sabha seats in the state. But this time the party even lost its deposit.

The Anna factor may have given the non-Jat consolidation against the Congress a further push, and Hisar is a non-Jat seat, and had enabled the late Bhajan Lal to win from here. But this time, it provoked the Jats to rally solidly behind Ajay Chautala, and not behind chief minister Bhupinder Singh, or to get divided. It could not therefore have been the corruption issue which pushed the Jats behind Chautala, who hardly enjoys a scintillating image.

Nevertheless, it is bad news for the Congress, which seems to be losing the support both of the Jats and non-Jats in Haryana.

In Banswada, Andhra Pradesh, the result was not unexpected, given the Congress stand over the Telangana issue, and it was not surprising that the TRS won handsomely. This may be the shape of things to come, since the government seems to be in no mood to grant statehood to Telangana. This does not automatically translate into seats for the party in the rest of Andhra, for anti-incumbency is bound to take its toll, and the anti-corruption climate will also influence voters in coastal Andhra and Rayalseema.

The bottom line is that the Congress is all set to lose the advantage it once had in Andhra Pradesh, which had catapulted it to power in Delhi twice.

The most worrying defeat, however, was in Khadakvasla in Maharashtra, another big state that has been under the Congress-NCP belt. Though the Congress was not in the fray here, Khadakvasla falls in Sharad Pawar’s territory. This time the MNS, which had ensured the Congress-NCP victory in the last state elections, is believed to have given its tacit support to the BJP candidate, enabling her to win. The idea was to teach a lesson to Maharashtra deputy CM Ajit Pawar, who had staked his prestige here, giving a ticket to the wife of the MNS MLA whose death necessitated the by-election.  

While the Congress is increasingly losing ground, the BJP, scenting power, is not only piggybacking Team Anna on corruption, it is also going in for new alliances — as with the Jan Hit Congress in Haryana — or is laying the ground for them. It did not oppose the TRS in Banswada and has already come out in favour of a separate Telengana. It is premature to read too much into the MNS’s quiet support to the BJP at this stage, but anything is possible in politics.

The Congress no longer looks invincible, whether it is Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, or Maharahstra. Nor is the going good for the party in other big states like Bihar. West Bengal has already gone the Mamata way. There is little hope for the party in Madhya Pradesh, and it is rapidly losing ground in Rajasthan.

Team Anna member Arvind Kejriwal’s foray into UP and his call against the Congress — even before the ruling party has come out with the Lokpal Bill, which it had promised to do in the winter session of Parliament — could be calculated to push the Congress to fourth position and enable the BJP to occupy the third slot in Uttar Pradesh, since both the mainline parties have had an eye on the urban middle class, Team Anna’s catchment area.
Rahul Gandhi is about to start his UP Yatra, but as of now, this is not likely to make the Congress a frontrunner. So where are the Congress party’s numbers going to come from in 2014?

You can hold Team Anna guilty of political partisanship, but this is little comfort for the Congress, if it continues to lose elections. A string of scams and rising prices, coupled with Anna’s efforts, have helped create an anti-Congress atmosphere, and now the by-poll results will reinforce that climate. Given the prevalent mood, a strident voice has a greater appeal than a voice that is moderate.

The moot question however is: How does the Congress turn around such a situation? Can the five legislations planned by the government to combat corruption achieve this? Or will the party be compelled to now fashion a politics that does not just react to agenda set by others?

The writer is a political and social commentator